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HTF 12H:

The middaily chart is showing a local throwback and mean reversion to MA20. After closing previous session as a tiny doji candle trading inside 63.4-62.7k range, local outside candle arrived with higher volatility to tap support at 61.5k.

Bollinger Bands suggest that the key volatility levels are 64.2k and 58.8k and those levels are supposed to act as resistance and support accordingly. As long as bitcoin trades between those volatility range boundaries, one should not expect any explosive moves of high risk. Instead, it is expected for bitcoin to go up spectacularly once it closes a day outside the said boundaries. This way the daily close over 64.2k would confirm a volatility breakout and large upside rally to follow. Minimum target would be ~70,000 USD. Downside breakout would theoretically bring 52-53k targets yet for that there’d need to be external FUD news, military conflicts escalation, FED or Elon Musk pulling off low IQ move or other micro-black swan event. Highly unexpected imo.

Chart pattern analysis indicates, that the previously mentioned bull flag pattern has just seen its decent breakout. As long as 12h or 1d candles keep closing over 61.5k, the upside target is $80-85k. In case of a fakeout and daily close beneath 61.5k, the expected support level is lower Bollinger Band at 58.8k. As long as BTCUSD trades over the bull flag, it points out more in the upwards direction.

MTF 4H:

MTF chart shows overall a clean uptrend interrupted by a casual range pattern happening right now. The range bound occurs between extreme low of 58.8k and extreme high of 67k if looked at the line chart showing the price essence. It looks completely healthy knowing that it is first longer retracement and it’s not even declining or aggressive, it’s just flat. To me the fact of this corrective wave being flat rather than declining wedge or so, shows the technical strength of bitcoin. I take it as a directional confirmation of very strong upwards momentum that the bulls don’t allow the bears to take control and penetrate lower regions on the price chart. IMO that’s bullish.

On top of that, the volume profile analysis seems to be suggesting that the main area of previous resistance at 63k was successfully invaded by bulls. Currently local volume-based support shows up in 61-61.5k region. This level should act as a volume-based demand zone where the bids would pile up. Especially, that it’s close to the range lows area. In case the volume-based demand zone is lost with an ugly daily close beneath, the next floor target is range lows low-mid 58000s. IMO rather not likely much without additional FUD news factor but even if you’re lucky enough to get it, it’s not bearish. It’s neutral in worst case and accounting the primary trend going upwards, the consolidation is rather to offer trend continuation after breakout.

Moving average of 200 past periods (200MA) shows off an additional backup at 58.2k. This confirms the validity of range lows territory and it’s technical “power”. As long as MA200 ascends healthily at 45 degrees angle like it does now, the upwards trend is not in danger or even vulnerable for the next few weeks.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss

NUPL continues to show that bitcoin is in the strong belief territory. The higher up the ratio scale it goes, the more profits should be taken off the table. Unrealized profit is no profit. That’s how it works. For now I can’t see a single point or factor that would worry me about onchain side of bitcoin and instead I see a lot of strength I’d commented on before.

NUPL at 0.631 is having lows of upside room for growth. Considering that current NUPL levels for bitcoin trading over 60k USD are way lower when compared with April-May period, this is a clear onchain lag behind the price. The price breaching new ATH with onchain lagging shows the hidden potential to me as the network is way healthier and needs less “engagement” to pull off higher prices. It feels as if there were fewer bears because of that. Less obstacles. Im actually not surprised as most of the bears got wiped out and liquidated at 30k and 40k floor liquidity whipsaws.

Once NUPL crosses 0.75 and 0.8, this will be a clear trigger to me to switch to aggressive profit taking. For now, we’re safe and ready to go way higher.

In addition, it’s worth reading through the article I wrote for Bitcoin Magazine, the world’s largest newspaper bitcoin related.

Fear & Greed Index

With bitcoin trading over 60k USD, the fear/greed index remains within the greed or extreme greed territory. Today the indicator shows 76 points out of 100 on the scale. If one studies through the chart history to understand better the trend longevity of bitcoin, it’s easy to notice that bitcoin rarely ever shows neutral sentiment. It rather interchangeably swings between the extreme high levels over 80-90 or extreme low below 20 points. For this reason, Im also not worried about current indication of 76 points.

In fact, in my previous reports I suggested that bitcoin should be expected to remain inside the extreme greed zone practically till the end of the year or the end of the bull market and it shouldnt really surprise anybody. That shows a trend strength and strong tendency for this market to go up rather than bulls’ exhaustion.

The market is always right in the middle of trend and always wrong at the extreme.

Only after being here for years and analyzing through infinite amounts of bitcoin charts in my career, I know that current extreme greed indication alings more with the first part of the thesis above. It’s the “market is always right in the middle of trend” part. Accounting larger context, onchain, fundamentals, intermarket correlations and technicals, this does not look like a trend exhaustion and bear market stage at tiniest bit. It shows that the strongest time is yet to come for bitcoin. The most powerful final leg up is coming. Sentiment trends seem to confirm that very well.

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