Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 13 2021)
HTF 1W:
Weekly chart closed with a bearish reversal candle being a form of an engulfing pattern which after massive rally up off 29.2k lows in July, brings chances to revisit 50-week average in the coming weeks/months. Obviously, I’m long term bullish and the very chart concept presented in July is still valid. You should not naturally use magnifying glass to confirm where my squiggle lines reach in downwards direction or so. It’s just a qualitative concept so that you know what picture Ive got in my head. It assumes BTCUSD throwback into high 30000s or low 40000s to retest the mean.
September usually has been rather of negative returns for bitcoin and Id expect no different this time. As you know from my prior analyses, Im expecting local pullback into low 50000s to later potentially revert back to 50-week average. The mean reversion would be expected intraweek, which means that on the weekly candle you’d see long lower candle shadow reaching the average but candle closing over that level. This would confirm the 50-week average would act as support and demand zone inside the wick area.
Invalidation of “bearish” throwback concept is seen once weekly candle closes inside 52942-58305 zone, which could lead to new ATH prematurely, while Im expecting it in November-December.
Long-term consolidation pattern, e.g. triangle displayed, continues as long as BTCUSD trades between 28.8k and 65k. This gives 30k+ breakout size in upwards direction from technical analysis of chart patterns. This would place new ATH somewhere in the high 80000s, which seems to confirm my Elliot Wave Fibonacci based targets.
HTF 1D:
Daily chart shows another mean reversion picture of BTCUSD throwback reaching VWAP levels at 42.8k, which is exact area Id been giving and warning about to have bids down there weeks before the micro crash happened.
Supply zone 53-58k given in June stays even more relevant now that BTCUSD confirmed this area to act as a strong resistance. Demand zone is still given in 39-42k area and micro dips into this region should not be crossed out of the list just yet. Still worth having bids down there while 50-51k is breakdown retest area. Depending on the bitcoin’s success of failure to reclaim 51k pre-breaker resistance and 53k highs, it will either follow through into mid-high 50000s up to 58-59k or stay closer to 43k floor.
Respect the volume-driven levels as that’s always where the majority of traders get wiped out or liquidated. These areas work like magnet.
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart showing progressing contracting consolidation between volume-based levels of 43677 and 46505. Naturally, bitcoin is following typical stages of PTSD range pattern post-crash. As said many times before, every chart pattern, trendline, candle formation that may look bullish or bearish, it’s truly not. It’s all just noise trading right now as the market is slowly rebuilding and fixing its denial after $4B liquidations from 53-43k crash day. As long as we stay inside the range, the range trading strategies apply accordingly.
Clean levels appear to be at 46250, 50402, 59580 still.
The area between 42116 and 43677 aVWAP trendlines is considered volume-based demand zone and that’s where the bids should be sitting.
I’m not excluding concept of sweeping the lows of PTSD range so far at 42.8k into low 42000s as aVWAP suggest just to make the crowd ultimately fear with extreme fear below 25 points on the scale. That would be the ultimate buy trigger.
MTF 4H:
PTSD range continues. We’re slowly rebuilding the market liquidity and mindset after suffering significant losses on the dump day and massive liquidations. While transitioning slowly and gradually from phase I to phase II, one must remember to keep their bids below the two aVWAP resistances shown in the chart within 46-46.5k zone.
Let me remind everybody what the specific phases meant:
First phase typically is about very intense and broad volatility with very high risk. It’s NOT suggested for scalpers or short-term traders to traded intraday swings because the market is highly unstable and lacking the trend. For that, you should expect irrational, not “technical” movements where no patterns, movements are really predictable and come true as you could expect them to do based on regular TA readings. After the market and people have realized what has just happened – some people woke up to liquidated accounts which is always about denial – the PTSD phase II starts.
Phase II of PTSD range is imo about market recovering and reverting back to its means. Clearly, 47.6 and 49.1k can be used for reference as resistances backed by volume of the selloff. In case these ones are breached with decent close of 4h or higher candle over that resistance, the next is the said pre-breaker setup for 50402-51000 retest which marks the fakeout zone above as distribution place.
Phase III is when the market slowly recovers its “technical” features and TA applies better back again. That’s when you could trade BTCUSD more safely.
Until then, PTSD stands for range Post Traumatic Stress Disorder period as I refer to it. As any other range, it only trades outside the boundaries, not inside where its lacking the direction by definition.
As any other range trading setup, you may apply one of the three strategies below:
- Inside Range Trading : buy the range lows, sell the range highs
- Outside Range Trading: buy the upside range breakout (or retest), sell the downside range breakdown (or retest)
- Do not trade the range at all
Most of you would probably do best if no range trading at all is applied.
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All above applies.
LTF 1H:
LTF chart showing news-driven pump & dump from LTC-Walmart partnership rumor, which has not been confirmed yet in a way that it appeared on official Litecoin’s twitter and then disappeared. Bitcoin “reacts” accordingly to the LTC news as it’s closely correlated.
AVWAP levels add validity to the resistance role of 46-46.5k region that once broken may let bitcoin slip into high 40000s or upper levels marked 50.4-51k for bitcoin.
As it’s trading inside the PTSD range, buying the range lows and selling the range highs might be short-term trade opportunities while I do personally believe that buying the lows around 37000-40000 area explained earlier and holding them for the next months of 2021 would be the second chance for those who missed the entire pumps from sub 30k levels.
Unless unpredicted global financial crisis, market crash, black swan event, pandemic, military tensions emerge, Im not expecting 30k levels sooner than the upcoming bear market of 2022. The floor expected for bitcoin on my end then is 10-14k USD as that’s where 200-week average will likely be defining long-term good buying value.
FEAR/GREED INDEX
All my thoughts shared recently in the reports or in the webinars stay valid and relevant still.
I personally want to see more crowds fear into extreme fear territory with sub 25 levels on the fear/greed map. That would confirm ultimately good buying opportunity, second after sub 30k dips.
For now, imo crowds dont fear enough so it might be expected to visit low 42000s before final recovery push to retest 50k.
But then, don’t forget that September also allows visiting 50-week average so high 30000s are also on the table. That’s where crowds would get deepest desire to sell the bottom, which would serve as great buying deal for institutional investors catching up for the last bull run leg up of this 2018-2021 bull market.
Conclusion: be ready both for 37000s and 42000s. I dont own crystal ball and cant tell you which comes first as both are likely as much as revisiting 50k again.