Even as U.S. deaths from COVID-19 surpassed 400,000 this week, some Americans dispute the accuracy of the death toll, contending it is exaggerated.
400,000 Americans now dead from COVID-19, equaling US casualties from WWII
Final figures aren’t yet in, but preliminary numbers show 2020 is on track to become the deadliest year in U.S. history, with more than 3.2 million total deaths – about 400,000 more than 2019 – a sharp increase that public health experts attribute to COVID-19 and aligns with reported deaths from the disease.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,835,533 U.S. deaths in 2019. Before the pandemic, models projected a slightly higher number, about 2.9 million deaths, for 2020, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
It’s not a coincidence, he said, that the 400,000 excess deaths closely resemble the number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S., which reached 401,796 as of Wednesday, according to Johns Hopkins data.
“That is not a seasonal change or just a random bad year,” Faust said. “That is what every person who can correctly attest to these numbers can plainly see is a historic increase in excess mortality. If we put that together with the number of coronavirus deaths, it’s game, set, match.”
Excess deaths are defined as “the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”
The CDC predicts excess deaths since Feb. 1 may be between 350,000 and 469,000. Faust says some models project the number may be closer to 430,000.
Researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond estimate excess deaths may be up to 50% higher than publicly reported.
By examining death certificates, they found more than 150,000 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19 in March to July but determined that nearly 75,000 additional deaths were indirectly caused by the pandemic, according to a study published in October in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA.
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With that logic, excess deaths easily may be higher than 500,000 or approaching 600,000, said Dr. Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond.
“That’s based on where we are right now, and unfortunately, we’re seeing the numbers climbing, so the concern is obviously that we’re going to end up with more excess deaths than that,” he said.
Deaths from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, are not the sole cause of 2020’s increase, as the country also has seen more overdoses, partly due to the isolation brought on by the pandemic.
According to the CDC, there were more than 81,000 overdose deaths in the 12 months ending in May 2020, marking the highest number of overdose deaths ever recorded in a yearlong period. Overdose data for all of 2020 is not yet available.
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Faust said the country continues to see a historic increase in excess deaths among the young adult population, specifically ages 25 to 44.
A CDC study found deaths in that age group from all causes increased 26.5% from January to October, the largest average percentage change among all age groups. Faust said, according to modeling, the nation saw 7,300 excess deaths in this population from August to the end of November.
“Which, again, tells us that the pandemic and its effects are not just limited to the elderly,” he said.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine predicted in October the Trump administration’s pandemic approach could lead to 511,373 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 28.
Dr. Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at IHME and chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington, said the coronavirus pandemic has also led to an increase in smoking, drinking, domestic violence, mental health conditions, delayed medical care and more.
“All of these conditions contribute to health in the United States that has in many ways set us back,” he said. “And we haven’t seen the end of it.”
Follow Adrianna Rodriguez on Twitter: @AdriannaUSAT.
Health and patient safety coverage at USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.
Motorists line up to take a coronavirus test in a parking lot at Dodger Stadium, Monday, Jan. 4, 2021, in Los Angeles.
A clinician cares for a COVID-19 patient at Providence St. Mary Medical Center amid a surge in COVID-19 patients at the hospital and across Southern California on Jan. 6, 2021 in Apple Valley, California. The hospital is operating at over 200 percent of its normal ICU (Intensive Care Unit) capacity and is currently converting some patient rooms into ICU rooms to treat the increase in COVID-19 patients requiring ICU-level care. California has issued a new directive ordering hospitals with space to accept patients from other hospitals which have run out of ICU beds due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Registered nurse Kennoka Williamson wears personal protective equipment (PPE) as she attends to patients in a suspected Covid-19 patient triage area set up in a field hospital tent outside the emergency department of Martin Luther King Jr. (MLK) Community Hospital on Jan. 6, 2021 in the Willowbrook neighborhood of Los Angeles, Calif.
Two nurses put a ventilator on a patient in a COVID-19 unit at St. Joseph Hospital in Orange, Calif., Jan. 7, 2021.
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A nurse dons personal protective equipment (PPE) to attend to a patients in a Covid-19 intensive care unit (ICU) at Martin Luther King Jr. (MLK) Community Hospital on Jan. 6, 2021 in Los Angeles, Calif.
Registered nurse Merri Lynn Anderson, right, tends to her patient in a COVID-19 unit at St. Joseph Hospital in Orange, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 7, 2021.
A nurse wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) including a personal air purifying respirator (PAPR) looks through a door into a patients room in a Covid-19 intensive care unit (ICU) at Martin Luther King Jr. (MLK) Community Hospital on Jan. 6 2021 in Los Angeles.
Patients lie on stretchers in a hallway in the overloaded Emergency Room at Providence St. Mary Medical Center amid a surge in COVID-19 patients in Southern California on Jan. 5, 2021 in Apple Valley, Calif.
Rebecca Gonzalez-Schafer works in the temporary patient information booth set up in the parking lot at Providence St. Mary Medical Center amid a surge in COVID-19 patients in Southern California on Jan. 5, 2021 in Apple Valley, Calif.
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Registered nurse Yeni Sandoval manages medication for a COVID-19 patient in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at Providence Cedars-Sinai Tarzana Medical Center in Tarzana, Calif. on Jan. 3, 2021. Approximately four weeks ago, the hospital had a very manageable census, and very small amounts of patients in the ICU, but since Thanksgiving it seems like the census has been doubling every 10 days and they’ve gotten to a point where 80% of the hospital is filled with patients with COVID-19, and 90% of the ICU is now filled with COVID-19.
Memorial Hospital registered nurse Kari Carrell cares for a patient in the COVID-19 intensive care unit on Dec. 29, 2020, in Bakersfield, Calif.
People stroll on the Venice Beach Boardwalk in Los Angeles, Dec. 27, 2020. In Los Angeles County, the nation’s most populous, county estimates show that about 1 in 95 people are contagious with the coronavirus.
Registered nurse Leslie Clark, right, collects a nasal swab sample from a mans as administrative worker Sander Edmondson works on his computer at a COVID-19 testing site in Los Angeles, Dec. 27, 2020. Hospitals in central and Southern California are quickly running out of intensive care unit beds for coronavirus patients and state officials are poised to extend the strictest stay-at-home orders there as conditions worsen before the post-holiday surge hits.
COVID-19 patient Efrain Molina, center, gets a fist bump from nurse leader Edgar Ramirez at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in the Mission Hills section of Los Angeles on Dec. 22, 2020.
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Registered nurse Romina Pacheco disinfects her powered air purifying respirator after tending to a patient in a COVID-19 unit decorated with Christmas stockings with nurses’ names written on them at Mission Hospital in Mission Viejo, Calif., Monday, Dec. 21, 2020.
Physical therapist Alireza Akbarpour, right, helps Maria Herrera exercise in a COVID-19 unit at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in the Mission Hills section of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2020.
Dr. Mher Onanyan takes a short break while waiting for an X-ray of a COVID-19 patient’s lungs at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in the Mission Hills section of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2020.
Nurses treat a COVID-19 patient in an intensive care unit at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in the Mission Hills section of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2020.
Registered nurse Melanie LaMadrid checks on a patient in a COVID-19 unit at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in the Mission Hills section of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2020.
Clinicians work after manually proning a COVID-19 patient in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at Sharp Grossmont Hospital on December 14, 2020 in La Mesa, California. According to state figures Southern California, which includes San Diego County, currently has only .5 percent of its ICU (Intensive Care Unit) bed capacity remaining amid a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. Sharp HealthCare is the largest health system in San Diego County and is currently treating approximately 400 COVID-19 patients in its four acute hospitals.
Doctor Ali Jamehdor, Chief Director of the Emergency Room of the Dignity Health – St. Mary Medical Center, stands in front of a Covid-19 triage tent for patients with symptoms in Long Beach, California, on December 17, 2020.
Clinicians work in the former lobby of Providence St. Mary Medical Center, which has been converted into a care space to treat suspected COVID patients, amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in Southern California on December 23, 2020 in Apple Valley, California.
Juliet Babayan holds a gift for her sister Violet Bonyad as they visit through a window at the Ararat Nursing Facility on Christmas Eve on December 24, 2020 in Mission Hills, California.