Bay Area storms: High winds, floods, mudslides a threat this weekend and into next week – Times-Herald
As yet another winter storm rolled into the Bay Area on Saturday morning, forecasters warned of dangerous winds and mudslides, followed by widespread flooding early next week as a more powerful atmospheric river weather pattern is expected to slam the region.
Rivers and creeks will be at the greatest risk of cresting their banks on Monday and Tuesday. And the chances of flooding in other low-lying areas also will be highest then as the heaviest rains arrive.
But booming wind gusts starting Saturday could topple trees and knock out power lines. And after a week of relentless rainfall, mudslides are a threat this weekend, especially in areas burned by wildfires in recent years.
“A lot of these soils are very saturated, so there could still be mudslides and downed trees (this weekend), but our concern is even more elevated by the time we hit this Monday storm,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Brooke Bingaman.
Saturday’s weather pattern — the fourth in what has been a series of deadly and destructive storms since late December — was moving south from the North Bay on Saturday morning and expected to reach the rest of the Bay Area by the afternoon. It’s forecast to bring half an inch to 2 inches of rain for most of the region and up to 4 inches in the mountains through the weekend. Wind gusts could reach up to 60 mph, and even higher at mountain peaks.
After a brief respite Sunday afternoon, the more potent second storm is expected to arrive that night and last through Tuesday morning, dumping between 2 and 6 inches across the Bay Area and up to 8 inches in higher elevations.
Even San Jose could see about 2 inches of rain in the coming days, unusual for an area usually rain-shadowed in by the Santa Cruz Mountains, and Big Sur could get upwards of 11 inches of rain at its highest peaks.
The next few days will feature two separate storms. The first starting today through Sunday morning. There will be a brief dry period on Sunday, then the second round starting Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals and max wind gusts.#CAwx pic.twitter.com/9YgoRWiv0C
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 7, 2023
Until then, Sonoma and Napa counties should feel the brunt of the first storm.
“The North Bay is going to be the big focus of this one,” said weather service meteorologist Bray Murdock “There are some areas reaching up to 4 to 6 inches with maybe some peaks getting 6 inches.”
But as the second storm touches down late Sunday, the threat of floods and mudslides should increase across the region. And major waterways will be at risk of overflowing.
Some creeks and rivers the weather service highlighted for potential flooding include the Russian River near Guerneville in Sonoma County; Alameda Creek near Niles and Sunol, and Arroyo de la Laguna at Verona in Alameda County; and Coyote Creek at Milpitas and at Edenvale, and Pacheco Creek near Dunneville in Santa Clara County. The San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz County is also at risk of overflowing.
Bingaman encouraged residents to sign up for local emergency alert systems to get the most current information about any evacuation orders during the storms.
“One of the number one things for people to do is to make sure they are signed up for their county alerts,” Bingaman said. “That is going to be the best way to get the info that’s pertinent to them.”
Staff writer Aldo Toledo contributed to this report.