HTF 12H:
The middaily chart has canceled the prior “bullish” indication mid day, right along with bearish selloff on equities following the FED’s J Powell commentary over tighter monetary policy plans ahead.
The CTF Trailer remains the main breakout level to validate any upwards thesis at $42405. So far, it has failed to be reclaimed by the bulls, and the bearish advantage continues, while bitcoin consolidates inside a narrow range of prices $38500 through $43000.
The bears have maintained the control over the market in the near-term, at least.
The BWAP block implies resistance region at 40.2-40.6k USD region. As long as bitcoin fails to reclaim it, the bears have the upper hand in the market, aiming for potential price targets into the mid 30000s USD levels.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart displays bitcoin’s price action attempting to build a local base at the BWAP region: 39.5-39.7k USD. However, there is a resistance level in near proximity, which does not give much space for bitcoin to unwind a larger move.
The CTF Trailer implies the bears holding the upper vote in the market for as long as the Stop invalidation level at $41457 resists.
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
46856
45842
44604
42713
40193
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart continues to move in a slow-pacing upwards trend, which to me looks more like a correction than an actual trend developing. It can be seen as the sequence of small-bodied candlesticks, with a lot of indecision wicks on both ends of the candles.
Typically, such a movement would bring the impression of a continuation pattern, rather than a reversal formation, at least the way I see it.
The CTF Trailer resistance for the bulls to break through is at $40319. If reclaimed with a daily close above, it brings higher chances for BTC to continue upwards into the 40000-41000 USD area.
The Level Lines support is defined at $38791 by the BPRO, and it may be due for a retest, if bitcoin fails to hold the local BWAP support (orange box).
Overall, a lot of indecision and quite a typical price action recorded during the weekends – low volatility, lots of noise, little to no trend. This risky environment does not favor any trend-following strategies. Instead, it generates arguable opportunities only for the most skilled leverage traders within the intraday time frames, in other words – the whales and funds. If planning to trade through the weekend, make sure you are ready and well equipped to outsmart those smart money participants.
FEAR/GREED INDEX
Quoting over my recent texts: “The main premise to the contrary opinion investing remains that the crowds are always wrong at the extremes due to their perception biases – cognitive biases, or mainly – emotional biases, e.g. loss aversion bias, sunk cost bias which make them act irrationally.”
With 24 points on the scale, the market has turned even more pessimistic and bearish in terms of speculators’ expectations. The more extreme pessimism there is within the market, the more buying opportunities historically were proven over the time.
It does seem a bit “late” to sell off at current levels, as the market values bitcoin as “cheap” based on the historical records. However, it seems a bit “early” to enter, too. No man’s land it is.
More insights and full analysis were shared in my yesterday’s webinar. Catch the link below if missed out
