Pache.co Information Technologies

The Ultimate Fighting Championship may not be
putting its best foot forward on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las
Vegas, but the dozen fights on the billing bring some wild betting
lines, from perfect pick’ems to a favorite above -2000. A few of
these tilts may be traps, and much of the value is found not on the
main card but on the prelims. The
UFC Fight Night 205 edition of Prime Picks eyes a play in the
length of the headliner, a pair of fighters who should be more
heavily favored against their inactive opponents and an enormous
underdog who has a far better chance of winning than the line
indicates.

Amanda
Lemos–Jessica
Andrade Goes Under 3.5 Rounds ()

Andrade checks into this pairing as a sizeable -220 favorite, one
that is not prohibitive but relatively dry from a value
perspective. Lemos has not faced off against someone who hits as
hard as she does or harder since dropping down 20 pounds to
strawweight, and Andrade will meet her in the middle and let her
hands fly. Both women are hittable, and they both do their best
work in the first round, with 18 stoppages in Round 1 between them.
The lone defeat for “Amandinha” came when Leslie
Smith stormed her with unending blows until referee Rich
Mitchell had seen enough. Smith simply overwhelmed her and did
not let Lemos get off anything in response. Andrade can do just
that, but if someone can match her power, it becomes a ballgame.
With finishing abilities firmly held by the two headliners in
spades, an under play at -125 may be more suitable than hoping one
countrywoman overcomes the other.

The ex-strawweight queen Andrade left the division in 2022 after
losing the rematch to current champion Rose
Namajunas, and a brutal knockout of Katlyn
Chookagian showed it might have been the right plan. If not for
Valentina
Shevchenko, Andrade may today be holding the strap. Instead,
“Bullet” beat her at every stage of the game, sending a dejected
Andrade back to the drawing board. Although she crushed Cynthia
Calvillo in her bounceback fight, “Bate Estaca” had designs on
returning to her stomping grounds at 115 pounds to piledrive some
opponents. Lemos may be taller and larger, but Andrade has never
had an issue taking on someone bigger; she did tap out a woman in
Larissa
Pacheco who later competed at lightweight, meaning 40 pounds
separate them now.

Lemos sports five
knockdowns in her last four trips to the cage, and most
recently became the first
fighter in the Octagon to put the durable Angela Hill
on her seat. The stinging strikes from Lemos get her opponents’
attention early, and they have the ability not just to hurt but to
take others out of their game. Both Montserrat
Ruiz and Livinha
Souza almost completely shut down before Lemos put them away,
and Andrade is susceptible to getting cracked if the woman standing
across from her stands her ground. It might end in the first round,
but with the odds where they are now, the under at the fight
concluding before the midpoint of Round 4 is tantalizing. Lemos has
never fought that far before, while Andrade’s lone excursion beyond
the 15-minute mark resulted in a clear-cut loss to a superior
striker in Joanna
Jedrzejczyk. A finishing sequence could come out of nowhere,
and as long as it occurs before 17:50 in the bout, the prop will
hit.

Dwight
Grant ()

A full six fights into his UFC run, “The Body Snatcher” is still a
bit of an unknown quantity. True to his nickname at times, Grant
may not so much snatch bodies as he does catch them if he lets his
hands go, but that is very much an issue. Four of his last five
appearances have gone to split scorecards, and the Alliance MMA
fighter has gone 2-2 in those outings. Instead of coasting, Grant
does increase his paltry volume as the fight progresses, but the
increase is
relative, as he may land 10 significant strikes in Round 1 and
elevate it to 15 in the third frame. Accuracy is a huge issue for
the New Yorker, who lands just a third
of his significant strikes attempted. Despite all of these
flaws, he takes on a fighter in Sergey
Khandozhko that has not stepped in a cage since late 2019. Ten
strikes in a round are better than zero over the last few years,
and Grant as a pick’em with both in minus territory is not one to
be missed.

Russia’s Khandozhko, even after a long time away from competition,
is still just entering into his athletic prime. He turns 30 in May.
Younger fighters historically see significant improvements as they
move from fight to fight, and even the 33-bout vet can show marked
upgrades with the time he has been off. “Honda” did attempt twice
to take the stage in 2021, but an injury and a COVID-19 diagnosis
squashed those plans. The intangibles largely play against the
Russian, but at the very least, he will not be facing an opponent
who is traditionally a fast starter that can catch him while trying
to get his sea legs beneath him again. Neither man has dazzled with
his in-cage performances, but the size, strength and activity of
Grant should give him the edge, not to mention an ability to get
the fight down to the mat should things go awry.

Marcin
Prachnio ()

It comes as a surprise that Prachnio, who swings into this light
heavyweight contest with as much momentum as he did coming into his
2018 UFC debut, is barely favored while opponent Philipe
Lins is even money. Lins has not fared well inside the Octagon,
with the fifth iteration of Andrei
Arlovski outworking him and Tanner
Boser and his mullet thrashing him. Lins will return to 205
pounds after moving there in search for $1 million with the
Professional Fighters League, and the shift
paid off as he went 4-0 in PFL and claimed the giant check at the
end. As he gets up in age and returns to a division where he will
face younger, faster opponents, it does not bode well for
“Monstro.” Getting Prachnio at anything beneath around -175 to -200
appears a worthwhile endeavor.

Lins never blew up as a heavyweight, a la William
Knight, coming in around the 230-pound range as a shredded
light heavyweight who simply did not bother cutting weight. This is
a change for him, as it will be his first time cutting down since
taking on Vadim
Nemkov in 2017, and he will do so at the ripe age of 36. Both
the Brazilian and his Polish counterpart are quite hittable, and
Prachnio has shown faster hands—even if Sam Alvey
punched him out in the former’s promotional debut. No matter if one
is confident in Lins or Prachnio, consider adding Fight Doesn’t Go
the Distance at -210 for a two-option parlay that would clock in at
around +161 for a Prachnio selection and +195 for Lins. With Lins
away for nearly two years while Prachnio has been active, the value
is firmly in favor of the 33-year-old, and a narrow pick of
Prachnio getting the stoppage at +150 is not out of sorts,
either.

Mike
Jackson ()

The UFC unquestionably holds a vested interest in this preliminary
card opener, as it puts boisterous Irish striker Dean Barry
against the man it dragged in to qualify to face Phil
Brooks. “The Truth” still went on to face “CM Punk,” and he ran
roughshod over the current All Elite Wrestling star over three
embarrassing rounds, only for the victory to be stripped
unceremoniously due to a positive test for marijuana in Chicago.
Like Barry, Jackson has appeared far more comfortable on the feet,
with prior appearances in boxing and kickboxing before turning to
the MMA ranks, and he did prove against Brooks that he can change
levels if need be. Barry undoubtedly wants the fight to remain
upright unless he drops Jackson, and Jackson will welcome an
exchange of fists and feet. While his displayed skill resides
somewhere between “CM Punk” and Mickey
Gall, Jackson is a live underdog here in this matchup.

Barry may possess four victories under his belt, all four by
knockout, but they do not entirely hold up under scrutiny. Just one
of those opponents came into their meeting with a winning record,
and the combined win-loss tallies for those four totals 15-33,
while a 2-5 sacrificial lamb in Bellator MMA tapped him in 2018. Every victory for the
Irishman has come by first-round knockout, and if one wishes to
throw some scratch on the overwhelming favorite, Barry winning by
stoppage is at -200 while getting his hand raised after a
first-round finish is in plus territory at +135. The question looms
as to what happens when either man takes a flush strike to the
dome, and with this remaining even over Barry’s head, it is
borderline unconscionable that he comes in to his UFC debut as a
-1400 favorite. To compare, the flyweight destroyer of
worlds—Shevchenko—has not eclipsed -1300 in her UFC run, and that
comes in a division where a “puncher’s chance” rarely presents
itself.