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HTF 12H:
The middaily chart has lost its local support at around 44300 USD amid equities falling ahead of today’s FOMC minutes (6pm UTC) regarding the balance sheet rundown and further tightening policy.
Technically speaking, BTC has just made a lower low following a lower high, which classifies the move off the highs around 48000 USD as a technical downwards trend, provided that the session closes below the support level.
The BPRO indicates further downwards advantage held by the bears since losing 45000s USD a few days ago. The bears have been in control over the market with the bulls having the lower hand.
The CTF Trailer Stop at $46613 is the main invalidation level now for the bears and the resistance above which the bulls re-gain the upper vote. As long as this level is not reclaimed, the BPRO implies further downwards unfolding of the price action.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart implies BTC struggling to defend essential support region at the edge of short-term trend reversal to the downside.
The BPRO analysis suggests that BTCUSD is currently testing volatility-based lows of the range projected by the Momentum Bands. An ugly breakdown below the $44200 level with a close below increases chances of a stronger move to the downside with more liquidations and fireworks. The High Band projects resistance area at 47.5-47.9k USD, backed by The Level Line resistance.
The BWAP resistance is located at 45-45.3k USD and it is backed both by the price and volume. Hence, it can be considered the most relevant near-term resistance to defeat on the bulls’ side, which if reclaimed can add more ease to reaching back higher regions.
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
47685
45912
45093
Meanwhile, BPRO Level Lines show supports at:
43313
41687
36640
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart shows quite a lot of technical weakness on the intraday basis which doesn’t seem to show any clean symptoms of reversal to the upside.
Despite BTCUSD locally is printing long lower shadows in the candlesticks chart which represents the demand side of the market. These candlesticks are backed by short-term volume based box at 44000-44200 USD raising hope for the bulls and short-term reversal. As long as this is not confirmed by breaching 45000 USD resistance back again, BTC is at the edge of further declines into the $42000 support region with not so much of support on the way down, as it may seem.
Based on the BPRO Wave Pivots, there is quite a lot of resistance above current levels for bitcoin to overcome. With local support at 43700 USD, the resistances are as follows: 45-45.4k USD, 46.4-46.9k USD, 47.6k USD.
Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
As CryptoQuant explains: “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. Assuming that the latest coin movement is the result of a purchase, NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins represented as a ratio. It could be interpreted as the ratio of investors who are in profit. Values over ‘0’ indicate investors are in profit and an increasing trend in value means more investors are beginning to be in profit. This phase indicates the increasing reason to take profit which leads to an increase in sell pressure.”
Currently, at around 0.46 ratio value represents no extreme evaluation in terms of how long-term trend of bitcoin is oversold or overbought. The way I see it, BTC has not seen the NUPL peak during this bull market just yet, which potentially leaves more upside room for growth. Current NUPL levels were also seen when BTC was trading at 50k USD in the most recent history.
That being said, there does not seem to be much of divergence in support of either bulls or bears. It sees quite well aligned with the price action in terms of directional convergence. This could be considered healthy or default status of the market, when comparing technicals and on-chain aspects.
That’s all for today. Hope it helps. God bless.
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HTF 1M:
The monthly close has brought not much of a spectacular move in either direction. Instead, the market observed a lot of both-sided uncertainty between the lows of $37000 and the highs of $48000.
The candlestick formation is a high-wave spinning top, with a longer lower shadow, which represents the demand side of the market. To me, it suggests that the demand side was eventually stronger and won the battle, forcing the bears the give up their safe territory below 40000 USD region.
The BPRO CTF Trailer implies that ever since October 2021 the market has remained more bullish than bearish with a strong flat support on the monthly time frame at $40641. As long as this level is supported and BTC closes no monthly session below this valid line in the sand, then bitcoin bull market is safe to continue.
The BWAP resistance block reaches as high as $49000, and a monthly close above this level could trigger new ATH, in my opinion.
Historically, since 1950 April returns the best performance of any month in any year on average. This implies that the seasonality is on the bullish side and favors. It is fair to expect a bit of upwards relief in the markets, which could be potentially promising for bitcoin to close April higher than the March candle.
HTF 1W:
The weekly chart seems to show a lot of confluence with the monthly indications.
The BPRO CTF Trailer shows the main resistance to be at $49100s, and a close above potentially validates upwards continuation into the range highs of 70000 USD.
Price action wise, BTC has brought a higher high and a proper breakout two weeks ago, bringing a significant breakout thrust through the main consolidation resistance to date.
That being said, the weekly time frame is yet to escape the bearish effects of the corrections of last months. The bears are still controlling the market, as long as BTC keeps closing weeks below $49100s.
On another note, BTCUSD vs SPX correlation has soared to 0.92 for its correlation coefficient on the 7-week basis. This implies very strong connection between bitcoin’s movements and stock market. Any sharp twist on equities side can impact bitcoin in the same manner, bullish or bearish.
Finally, for the first time in a while, BTCUSD has breached 50-week average and established last week’s trading mostly above it. It’s very promising sign for potential upwards continuation coming from underlying strength and momentum.
HTF 1D:
The daily chart seems to have been being supported well by the 20-day baseline average.
After printing higher high in the chart around $48000, bitcoin approved a breakout with abnormal volatility marks to the upside. Since then, it’s continued moving sideways within the highs and the range lows of $44000. This short-term consolidation may appear to be more of continuation than distribution, should the 45700 USD baseline support hold.
Otherwise, the CTF Trailer Stop is set at $43188, which if broken will admit the higher vote the daily bears.
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart represents a short-term indecision pattern.
The bears have re-gained the control over the bulls after losing $45300 support. The CTF Trailer Stop is now set at $47150 and as long as the bulls do not manage to close a day through this level, bitcoin is a subject to further consolidation or downwards-oriented retracement. A clean break above brings higher chances of BTCUSD reaching 50000 USD resistance.
If that is the case, then bitcoin may search for support somewhere closer to 40-43k USD regions, which would not be in favor of bullish momentum. It would simply erase big chunk of the momentum which has already been built behind the breakout above $46000.
The BWAP support block is at 45.3-46.3k USD and an ugly close beneath could imply further unfolding of the short-term pattern to the downside.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart represents a narrow range-bound movement with a number of traps/noise on both sides of the consolidation.
A clean support defined by the BPRO is at $45000, whereas the resistance is set at $46700. A clean break below of above these levels, accordingly, can cause a more explosive movement in the direction of the breakout. The upper candle shadows standing out above the resistance mark the swing failures, which make me think that there are high chances of BTCUSD to trade at $45000 in the next hours.
An ugly loss of 44500 USD support can result in further downwards correction into the $42000 support.
On the other hand, the most bullish scenario assumes that the bulls reclaim the resistance at $47800, which so far has been continuously rejected.
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart shows a clean set of the most significant technical levels to pay attention to, if you are as short-term trader.
Namely, the resistances are given by the BPRO Level Lines at $45758, and $47023. If one resistance is breached, the next one unlocks as the next potential magnet or anchor.
On the support side, the market favors $44348 as the main pivotal level, should $45758 resistance remains not reclaimed.
FEAR/GREED INDEX:
Clearly, the sentiment remains pretty much neutral over the course of the last few days.
Not much change on the sentiment side implies that there might be not much change on the technical side in terms of any significant moves behind the scenes, favoring either bulls or bears.
At 52 points on the index scale, the market has managed to well recover the past 4-month-long uncertainty and fear period, which is more promising for the bulls for several reasons. Namely, the late shorts into the low-mid $30000s were trapped and already covered/liquidated in major part. This often aligns well with a sort of disbelief status of the market.
This, combined with the fact that “trend is your friend” implies a significant turn in investors psychology, which could arugably add conviction and momentum to the bullish side.
The way I see it, the market (if undisturbed by Russia-Ukraine war escalation, nuclear bombs, etc. which charts can not predict) is taking a quick breath before further upwards continuation waves come up. This seems to be somewhat aligned with the sentiment conditions.
Hope this helps. I’m glad to be back after my surgery. Thanks for all the prayers and good wishes. God bless.
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart has closed two consecutive candlesticks below the prior support of $42800. This implies underlying weakness, for now. Let us study it in more details.
Firstly, BTCUSD has been trending down ever since breaking below key CTF Trailer support at 45000 USD. Such a breakdown validated an upper bearish vote in the market, which implies that the bears have re-gained the control over the market, at least temporarily.
The price action continues to take a stairway down with a series of lower highs and lower lows, clearly classifying this sort of movement under the category or a downwards trend.
The CTF Trailer Stop rests at $44685, which gives a clear line in the sand for the level that needs to be reclaimed by the bulls, in order to win the control back. Until then, bitcoin seems more vulnerable and in danger of retesting the lower levels, closer to $40000.
The Momentum Bands imply a theoretical range for BTCUSD to be at 40.3-49.6k USD. While BTC is trading in the lower end of the range, there is still downwards risk of retesting the bottom of the volatility range.
The Level Lines also show a strong technical support at $39158, which is likely to be hit – unless the CTF Trailer Stop $44685 is broken to the upside.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart shows a clean sequence of consecutive bearish candlesticks with no symptoms of reversal ongoing, so far.
The BPRO Wave Pivots display clean levels and areas of supports and resistances.
Arguably, bitcoin is hoovering right over a pivot-based support region of $42000, which if broken leaves a lot of space for further declines to as low as the next BPRO based 4h support line at 38100s USD. It shows an importance of the $42000 support region, hence.
On the resistance side, there is $43200, which clusters with the entire area up to $44000. For this reason, I would account the entire zone $43200-$44000 to be of one resistance cluster. Above it, there is $45700, as well as 46.5-47.2k USD region.
LTF 1H:
The hourly line chart shows the amount of indecision portrayed in most recent noise of sideways trajectory.
After a local breakdown below $43000, bitcoin attempts to build a base in the BWAP support block region of 42.3-42.5k USD.
So far, BTC has resisted to break above the baseline – 20-period average, which shows the short-term “fair” price of bitcoin, and serves as a reference point for traders. Analyzing the slope of the mean curve, one can record for a flat trajectory over the most recent sessions, which stands for lack of momentum or a slow-down of the selling pressure.
As such, BTCUSD does not flash any symptoms of strong reversal pattern and as of now it more looks as the market taking a breath before another leg down. Unless a rapid strength indication is recorded, bitcoin risks falling lower.
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
46945
46452
45639
44314
43553
The support is marked at $41822.
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”
FEAR/GREED INDEX
The sentiment worsens and the fear strikes back – again!
Now at 30 points on the scale, it’s another rendition of the fear saga.
The market sentiment flips back to the pessimistic side and one may conclude it comes with an overall conviction, that the market is “bound” to fall and crash.
Naturally, it’s impossible to predict future and the past performance can never be a guarantee of future performance. Yet, there is some predictive power to the fear/greed index fluctuations, among other market indicators.
Historically, fear brings better buying opportunities than selling. And this is the way I see it. It certainly does not allow to time a perfect reversal entry, but it does show when the market is valued as “cheap” on the contrarian basis.
To learn more, catch up with my yesterday’s webinar with full analysis of crypto among other financial markets.
Fiametta S3 plot twist
#arknights
My cockatiel Goo-san is interested in bat orchid.
And finally Goo-san rushed.
The result is a bat orchid win.
* Bat orchid is a plant of the fern family. In other words, it’s not a orchid. US scholars have shown that bat orchids are harmless.
About a meta, angsty LiveJournal fusion of Misty/May/Dawn/Serena who feels like she’s blown her shot at being really famous and getting it on with Ash. Waaah.
You know that one coworker who can’t stop talking about how she used to have it better decades ago, despite a steady job and a social life? That’s Dismay, who thinks she’s older than she actually is. (Kinda like Ash.)
Or you know that one voice actor who shows up to every comic-con, trapped into making money off your childhood when they should’ve been a famous singer or Oscar-winning actor?
Meet Dismay, Ash’s former companion on Pocket Monsters, the Kantonese show that was everywhere when you were growing up, encouraging kids to spend money in hopes of becoming the best, like no one ever was. Replaced by producer demands to “keep the show fresh”, she realized that all that time running up and down Kanto was the best years of her life. Now a corporate coordinator for Silph Co., the same company that produced Pocket Monsters, she spends her 9-to-5 dispatching Pokemon Coordinators and setting up Contests… and wishing she was back in the field, back in the spotlight, and back in the arms of the only person she loved.
CUTE BIRD COMMON HILL MYNA (GRACULA RELIGIOSA)
#cutebird #cutebirdvideos #cutebirdsounds #cutebirdringtone #cutebirdbaby #cutebirds #cutebirdsbaby #cutebirdsvideo #cutebirdssounds #cutebirdsfunnyvideos #bamsus #commonhillmyna #graculareligiosa