HTF 1W:
The weekly outlook is empowering the inverse relationship between Bitcoin and stock prices.
While stocks continued to climb, BTC has resolved to the downside. It might have strengthened the momentum principle of relative strength, which suggests that the underperforming assets (BTC underperforming $SPX) will instead continue to underperform than the reverse, more likely.
The 200-week resistance is at 24210 USD, while the 50-week resistance is at the 28765 USD level. Both levels conjunct to create a resistance cluster at the 24.2-28.7k USD area. Only after this supply cluster is breached the bulls may cancel the bear market and turn it into a bull market.
HTF 1D
Meanwhile, the daily chart confirms that the main resistance level on the horizon is at $17500.
If broken to the upside, it could ignite a local rally pulling back toward the 200-day mean at 21000 USD. If so, the bulls may get a bit more fresh air to fuel further upwards reactions.
However, BTC remains below the critical support line. As long as it does, the bulls are underwater.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart suggests a top overthrow pattern above the 17200 USD resistance.
Most often, failed breakouts tend to perform better in the opposite direction than anticipated at first.
For that, it means there are good odds of a local turnaround in the market if the BTC bulls cannot soon acquire the 17500 USD resistance.
Caution is advised.
Bitcoin Average Mining Costs
The miners are underwater, again. After a brief moment of the production costs being lower than the price of Bitcoin, the mining difficulty has increased and put the miners on the losing side, to continue their misery.
The longer BTC prices stay below the production costs, the more likely the scenario of a miners’ capitulation gets.
Hope for the best. Be ready for the worst.
Bitcoin seems heavily underpriced and cheap, but it doesn’t mean it cannot go any lower.
Caution recommended.