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HTF 1W:

The weekly chart seems to have rejected a strong resistance region around 25000 USD.

Following the wedge breakout, BTC has slidden down, below the main support area of 22000 USD, over which the bulls had held the defence. Ever since, the bears have regained the control over the market and are in charge now.

It is of special significance, from the technical viewpoint, because that has confirmed the top breakout failure. It’s not only a random resistance that held, but it’s also an important rejection adding to the Bitcoin’s underperformance vs stocks. This way, it seems, that BTC may have lost its only chance to catch up with the rest of the risk-on assets, which had already retested or rejected their 200-day averages, respectively.

If BTC were to reach the point where the stocks reside now, on average, then it would need to increase by about 40% – or more – from the current prices.

Such a failure implies even more weakness. The momentum principle suggests that the underperforming assets will continue to underperform. Such a tendency may take BTC back to its June’s lows or even lower.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart allows for a deeper a look into the rising wedge setup and its breakdown.

The pattern base size was around 3600 USD. So, the measured move price target is given at $20000. It may be expected, also, because the 20k USD level is a round number. Oftentimes, traders tend to anchor to the round numbers more, and prices tend to gravitate toward such levels.

Besides, the 200-week average price is at 23200 USD, which is now considered long-term reference value per BTC. After breaking below the mean, an upwards pullback may meet more resistance clustering below that level.

Overall, failed patterns tend to perform better in the opposite directions than anticipated based on the breakout itself. So, the fact that BTC broke back inside the previous June-July 2022 range 17.5-22k USD may suggest higher odds for new lows to be established, below 17500 USD.

MTF 4H:

The medium-term outlook gives a closer insight into the consolidation pattern, following the wedge breakdown.

As such, BTC is forming a kind of a range-bound pattern, as it continues to swing between the – more or less – fixed high and low figures at 20700 USD and 21800 USD.

The BPRO Momentum Bands imply that, after the breakdown, the new expected range for BTC is 19900-23000 USD. As long as BTC moves inside this territory, it may well continue the range-bound pattern. Until an either way breakout appears, Bitcoin trading can be more profitable for the trading range traders.

Simultaneously, the BPRO Level Lines show resistance levels at:

24995
23472
22591
21988

At the same time, the Level Lines display support levels as defined below:

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart displays a sideways period for BTC, where the price chops around with little to no specific direction.

The BPRO Divergence System has printed a 100% Div label, signalling a potential for a larger spring or bounce.

While the overbought or oversold conditions do not guarantee immediate success, it may often be considered a leading indicator, preceding lower time frame reversals.

The base size of the pattern is 21800-20700 equal to 1100 USD. This may be an objective added to the breakout level, in the direction of the breakout, so that the upwards objective is 23000 USD, whereas the downwards target reaches as low as 19600 USD.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

As the wedge breakdown happened, an overall deterioration to the sentiment barometer have come up.

This suggests more vulnerability to the support levels, which are the less likely to be held, the more disbelief and fear appear between the speculators.

Now, at 29 points on the scale, BTC maintains the “fear” status among traders. The more fear in the market, the more likely the support breakdowns are. This also suggests the momentum orientation, and the direction toward which the traders are most likely to look.

Of course, it is not a timing indicator, and it does not aim to define perfect tops or bottoms in the market. Instead, it may prove valuable insights about how the market participants are feeling at given BTC prices. The worse the sentiment readings, the better the chances are for a profitable mean reversion setup for the contrarian traders.

Historically, BTC retraces 80-90% of the values, measure from the cycle tops, to the cycle bottoms. So far, the records have shown a 75% drawdown during this cycle, which leaves still a potential for a deeper retracement, below the 17500 USD lows.

Importantly, macroeconomic environment needs to be accounted for. As such, it gives low consumer spending (sentiment), as well as recessive background. Typically, from the moment the recession is confirmed, there is a higher chance for the risk-on assets to trend lower, beyond the established lows, to later put in a slow-paced, stretched trough pattern filled with accumulation from the smart money.

Hope it helps. God bless.

P.S. If you think you could use more help from me or my pro traders team to get your confidence back up strong, unlock beginner-friendly resources you can finally trust, and better your trades faster with guidance, come in my hood.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart continues to consolidate for the BTC prices.

A short-term sideways pattern has resurfaced as Bitcoin chops side to side within the 19500-20500 USD territory.

The CTF Trailer has decreased slightly, so that the main resistance level is displayed now at 21410 USD. As long as BTC continues to trade below this level, the bears are in control over the market.

Only after the bulls manage to reclaim the said resistance area can they continue to persist higher, toward the 23100 USD levels. Until that happens, bulls do not have the upper hand in the market, and can be considered vulnerable.

It seems that the better odds are for the bears to follow through lower – at least for now.

MTF 4H:

It seems apparent that there is a longer tail to the downside for the medium-term BTC outlook.

This suggests an actual persistent movement downwards with consequence and follow-through. This is a trend, which kicked off at the moment of losing the 24000 USD support, following the choppy sideways period before.

As such, the 24000 USD level should now turn into a technical resistance, on the way up.

For now, though, BTC must break the CTF Trailer Stop at 20588 USD, in order to prove any signs of strength from the buyers.

Until that happens, the bears are in control, and even the sideways pattern forming right now can rather be considered a continuation formation, than a powerful reversal to the upside.

However more likely the odds are to continue lower, the traders should remain cautious and follow the breakout directions.

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart gives a more detailed look inside the consolidation pattern within the 19500-20500 USD range.

As such, it can be expected to be filled with bullish and bearish divergences, as it follows the mean reversion principle as prices chop around the mean.

For now, there are no promising symptoms of reversal coming up. BTC is now trading in the mid-range territory, while it’s not showing any directional preference.

Typically, such moves are often filled with a lot of noise, where the Kaufman Efficiency Ratio is at fairly low levels. This happens whenever there is little trend (direction) in a movement.

More often than not, such movements encourage mean reverting movements, whipsaws which trigger stop losses on both sides of the pattern, as well as short-term plays for highly leveraged traders trying to gamble.

This doesn’t seem like a good environment to be over invested in BTC, for now.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

THe “extreme fear” saga continues, again…

Now, at 21 points on the scale, there seems to be more conviction about the downwards continuation for the Bitcoin prices.

As such, the sentiment may not be considered a trading indicator, per se.

Instead it may offer edge and additional insight into a potential contrarian trade, in the opposite direction than the majority of the market would expect.

Typically, the more extreme the fear, the better the contrarian odds for a profitable position trade.

Ideally, the market sentiment is a source of valuable data over long-term trends, and not immediate market reactions.

With the overall weakness of BTC, when compared to other risk assets, e.g. S&P 500, it may be expected that there is a follow through to the downside, additionally backed by the bearish expectations of the herds.

Most often, major trough reversals occur at the selling climax amid the most extreme fear conditions.

I suggest that you remain cautious and not rush over any trades, at least for now.

Hope it helps.

God bless.

P.S. In my yesterday’s webinar I explained why traders should additionally focus on capital preservation, mostly, than any aggressive market decisions. Catch up with the link below.

Stream Source :【GUERILLA: RINGFIT】ヽ༼ ಠ益ಠ ༽ﾉ【NIJISANJI EN | Enna Alouette】

Timestamp : 16:05
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Streamer Channel : @Enna Alouette【NIJISANJI EN】
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Thanks to @🕊️🎐Lrezt for The Time Stamp 🙂
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Hi, I’m Square, a VTuber clippers from Indonesia 🙂 Thank you for Watching my clips guys 🙂
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HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has just displayed an attempt of a wedge support breakdown!

As the overthrows on top populate, the mean-reverting tendencies seem to be gaining on strength. It does not promise, per se, any specific direction of the breakout. However, top failures tend to be followed by more spectacular and violent sell-offs.

A potential wedge breakout objective may be as low as 20-20.5k USD territory.

As long as the CTF Trailer Stop is maintained at $23164, the bulls continue to hold the upper hand and decide about the medium-term market directions.

A failure to hold the CTF support line may align with a wedge breakout, and both effects combined may bring a more violent decline.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart gives a closer look into the wedge pattern situation.

As BTC attempts to break below the key ascending trend line support, traders must remember that only a closed session allows for any breakout conclusions.

The CTF Trailer has flipped back to the bearish note, as the short-term bears have regained the control over the market. For now, the bears have the upper hand, until a break and close over 24325 USD level appears.

Overall, the slow, upsloping price trend with a lack of follow-through on tops suggests that BTC is rather within a corrective tide than an actual strong trend – at least, based on Elliot Wave Theory Principles.

Knowing that BTC has been lagging severely behind other risk-on assets, and continuously underperforming large cap equities, it may happen that the actual BTC bear market rally continuation may be cancelled, prematurely.

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart has displayed an instance of a short-term breakdown, below the main support area of 23700 USD.

Ever since, BTC has now fallen closer to the invalidation point of a medium-term upwards rally. Provided that the daily candle closes below 23164 USD level, the short-term bears may gain on the selling strength and momentum.

However, short-term charts include much more noise and random walks, than trends seen on higher time frames. For this reason, traders should add more weight to the daily signals and confirmations, than to the hourly breakouts.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

The sentiment seems to be relatively stable, despite local fluctuations.

As the prices move a bit lower for Bitcoin spot buys, the sentiment seems to decrease, accordingly.

However, there still seems to be much more conviction about BTC going up, than when compared with June’s records.

As explained before, underinformed herds of investors tend to be “right” in the middle of trends, as they can be compared to the river stream flowing in a certain direction. When a lot of money moves in one direction, pushed by demand or supply present in the market, the momentum principle implies that the trajectory of the movement should be sustained – until it meets enough of the opposing forces as market gets overbought, or oversold.

Here, BTC seems to have not yet unveiled its full upwards potential, whereas the current price action adds to the selling pressure as the wedge pattern attempts a breakdown.

For this, the short-term disruption and a correction may be pending, while the upwards breakouts are yet to be confirmed.

More details are shared in the exclusive channels.

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That’s all for now. Hope it helps. God bless.