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HTF 1W:
The weekly chart has closed yet another bar over the 200-week average support.
Freshly, after the new week opened, BTC has pushed higher into the new weekly highs. However, it’s still in the resistance area near the 25000 USD level.
The price action suggests that the main resistance levels stem from the polarity change principle, for which the role is played by the old support areas, before they broke down. As such, the levels are: 25401, 28600, 32950 USD. Those levels can be expected to be price barriers, as the prices of BTC approach these territories.
The 20-week average resistance aligns with the middle resistance level, mentioned above – at 28600 USD. It strengthens the concept of the price barrier in this zone.
The correlation coefficient has leveled up into the 0.93 ratio, on the 7-week basis versus the S&P 500 prices. As long as the correlation remains strong and positive, BTC is likely to follow the stock market movements, largely.
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart has shown a decent example of a BWAP breakout, as the most recent bar closed through the BWAP block – a resistance zone defined by the price and volume composite.
Price action wise, BTC has just closed a bar representing strength in the area where it showed weakness before. It may be considered a sign of strength, and bullish momentum building.
The CTF Trailer remains on the bullish note, in favour of the price appreciation for Bitcoin.
The CTF Stop has been adjusted upwards per the BPRO readings, to the 22797 USD level. As long as BTC trades or closes the session prices over this level, the bulls are in charge and have the upper vote – targeting higher price objectives, toward the 28000-30000 USD region.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart is displaying another instance of a potential volatility breakout, as BTC attempts to cut through the BPRO High Momentum Band.
If confirmed with a daily close through the 24300 USD level, the volatility breakout may validate a stronger, more spectacular rally to the upside, as the recorded volatility would exceed the regular one. This could also be strengthened by a potential self-fulfilling prophecy effect from the buyers getting signals from similar volatility-based indicators. This could lead to buy orders clustering, pushing the prices higher, which may get additional boost from the regret bias traders who had missed previous entry opportunities.
The BPRO Band system suggests the regular volatility range within 22000-24300 USD zone. A failure to close outside either Band may suggest a mean-reverting move, back inside the projected range of volatility.
Furthermore, the Level Lines display support levels as defined below:
22827
21967
20655
19615
18424
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart confirms a short-term upwards breakout, over the main range high zone ~23500 USD.
While currently meeting a short-term resistance zone defined by the BWAP block, BTC has accelerated nicely enough to build an underlying momentum. If the breakout holds and does not break down, back below 23500 USD, BTC may continue the surge at a higher, stronger, and faster pace.
Additionally, chart pattern wise, the bottom pattern has proved a nice, rounded retest, also known as a saucer, or a cup. Such rounded bottoms are typically a sign of slow, but steady accumulation period, which works in favors of the bull traders.
FEAR/GREED INDEX:
Interestingly, as the market has gone upwards by a bit, the sentiment index has declined.
So, now at 30 points, the sentiment may still be classified under the category of fear, implying mean reversion trades in the upwards direction for the contrarian traders. However, the conditions are not as plausible as they were when BTC was trading based on the extreme fear sentiment records at 6 points on the scale.
As a result, BTC prices trading at 65% discount off the highs, builds fear among the traders – not only among those who had lost a lot in the bear market plunge, but also to those who have missed out on attractive prices due to their lack of discipline or behavioral biases.
Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
At 0.06, the NUPL ratio maintains slightly positive figures, following the capitulation climax in June 2022.
So far, there has been only slight improvement in the amount of net unrealized profits, which may still suggest that – despite the BTC recovering 30% off the lows – there is little liquidity in the market, for the bears. Typically, this is discouraging from large short selling whales or institutions, as they would not benefit from bigger execution fees, and overall slippage.
Historically, quite often after BTC recovers from its capitulation at the market bottom, the NUPL continues to improve, which is also a sign of underlying momentum. It is, because the amount of liquidity (unrealized profits) in the market may be a proxy to understanding the momentum aggregation. The more the liquidity in the market, the greater the momentum can be build off of it.
More market details shared in my premium video report.
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart has seen a local burst upon the CPI prints for July.
As recorded, the YoY inflation change was brought at 8.5%, whereas the expected rate was at 8.7%.
While it may not necessarily be the most weighted factor for Bitcoin traders, the short-term price action seems to have reacted quite positively to such a news.
Oftentimes, event-driven price shocks tend to retrace back to their pre-news levels.
However, there seems to be a little bit more of fundamental relief following based on easier expectations in the near-term future.
The CTF Trailer maintains the bullish tone, as long as BTC continues to close the days above the Stop level $22586.
Unless a breakdown beneath the stop threshold comes up, the BTC prices may be heading higher, driven by a bit less bearish expectations from the market participants.
A clean break above the 24300 USD level may also prove additional level of validation for the currently lasting bullish setup.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart sparks bits of hope among traders, as they anticipate if a major breakout had already happened.
With BTC trading at the 24000 USD whereabouts there has not been any major volatility breakout, just yet.
At least, according to the BPRO Momentum Bands, which define a regular volatility region to be at 22-25k USD.
As long as BTC trades within the range given, no breakout can be taken for granted, as it would immediately be a subject to a local failure, and a mean-reverting move in the opposite direction, leaving losses on a trading account.
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart displays yet another leg up within a larger sideways pattern.
Multiple failures on the top breakouts have nothing but strengthened the directionlessness (if there is such a word) of current Bitcoin movements.
It rather, hence, supports the views of those who choose to remain cautious, and not celebrate too early.
Until the 24300 USD resistance is breached successfully, on an abnormal volatility, and a close-through on the daily time frame, BTC may be in danger of a mean-reverting move to the downside and toward the 22500 USD area, or lower.
It is, because failed patterns tend to perform better in the opposite direction than anticipated based on the breakout itself.
BTC needs more breakout confirmation, in order for the short-term bulls to feel any major, credible relief.
FEAR/GREED INDEX:
As the Bitcoin prices move back and forth, inside a sideways pattern, the sentiment seems to oscillate around similar index levels.
The index now shows 31 points on the scale, out of 100. This, hence, can be classified under the “fear” category, again.
The worse the sentiment, the better the contrarian opportunity to trade counter the trend, profitably.
A lot of traders are already late to the party, for missing out on the bottom entries. Naturally, it’s impossible to catch the market bottoms, continuously. But, many will feel the pressure and FOMO to join on the speeding train of prices, after recovering over 35% off the floor pattern.
Without a dedicated system, the same mistakes shall be populated among traders. It is, for investors are subject to behavioral biases and acting upon them, spontaneously. It may often lead to ruin.
If want to learn, how to avoid devastating losses, I’ve prepared this free comprehensive thread on my twitter account – see the link below, then give it a read, and share around.
In my crypto trading career, I’ve made a ton of mistakes. Some had little impact. But, there’s one unforgivable investing error that leads to complete ruin…
Let’s break it down🧵👇
— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb)
Hope it helps. God bless.
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart continues to throw BTC prices over the preceding swing highs.
However, those breaks tend to represent failures, as the overthrows populate. Such breakout failures tend to promote mean-reverting tendencies. It means, that every next overthrow pattern comes in, BTC loses a bit of its bullish edge. Also, the downside risks odds are increased a bit, when that happens.
The CTF Trailer steps up, as BTC prints new highs. Overall, this is an upwards trend, but it’s relatively slow-paced. It is yet to generate a major up-thrust to confirm the main breakout, over the 25000 USD resistance.
Until that happens, the Bitcoin bulls have the upper hand over 23164 USD level.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart continues to move inside the regular volatility range, defined by the BPRO Bands.
As long as BTC does it, there is no valid confirmation for a volatility burst. Without such, BTC is more vulnerable and likely to move on a mean-reverting basis – level to level, between the Bands.
The Momentum Bands define the said range to be at 22500-25500 USD. A strong close outside either Band may confirm there’s enough momentum to pursue the movement in the direction of the breakout.
Moreover, the BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
25400
24995
At the same time, the Level Lines display support levels as defined below:
22827
21988
19865
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart continues to display mean-reverting tendencies for the Bitcoin prices.
It is, mainly, due to the increased population of fake breakouts, at the range high territory.
This is additionally backed by the BPRO Divergence System, which adds validity with the bearish divergences.
This suggests that the short-term trends are getting overextended, overbought – or simply exhausted, as BTC approaches the resistance region. It may stem from the lack of momentum at the breakouts, which is followed by breakout failures, as there is not enough demand to sustain trading at the higher prices.
Such investors behavior, typically, symbolizes early signs of a distribution pattern. Oftentimes, it is followed by a pattern breakdown and a leg down.
So, unless BTC decides to inject a burst of bullish momentum at the top, the chances are Bitcoin may fail to hold the pattern, pulling the prices lower.
It is nowhere near confirmed. However, every next overthrow at the resistance boosts the odds for a downside resolving.
FEAR/GREED INDEX:
The sentiment has clearly improved among the Bitcoin investors.
However, at 46 points, it can still be classified under the fear category.
As mentioned many times in the past, the underinformed herds tend to sell the bottom and buy the top, every time. It is, due to their behavioral biases, such as: cognitive dissonance, representativeness bias, loss aversion, or misinterpretation bias. All together create a phenomenon in the financial markets, where the majority is always wrong at the extremes – the most bearish at the selling climax, and the most bullish during the blow-off tops.
Although, the crowds are always right in the middle of trends. Once the trend develops, the momentum principle makes it persist in one direction, more often than not. Because of that, trading counter the trend after it’s developed makes it a losing bet, on average.
In the current Bitcoin case, this situation can be identified as the latter.
More insights were shared in my latest webinar. Market analyses are always time-sensitive, so catch up as soon as you can – just click on the link below.
Hope it helps.
God bless
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