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HTF 1W:

The weekly chart has added yet another bar under the 200-week average.

The Bitcoin price is now testing the 200-day mean resistance at 22500 USD, and the bulls may soon get the first confirmation for a break above the resistance. With a successful weekly close through the resistance, the next major price objective may be around 28000-30000 USD. However, as long as the bars keep closing underneath the 22500 USD level, the bears may get an edge with a bearish pennant pattern, which would imply downside continuation into the 10-14k USD area.

The 50-week mean is now at 42117 USD, and this level may be considered a valid long-term resistance, on the way up for BTC.

The correlation coefficient has declined sharply for BTC against the S&P 500 benchmark. Now, at 0.47 ratio, the directional connection between the bitcoin and stock prices has weakened. While it is not a guarantee for any reversal pattern, a decreased correlation ratio may mean less dependence for crypto prices on the stocks. One may rally without the another, and the other way around.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has printed consequent upwards sloping price action of higher highs and higher lows, locally.

While this itself doesn’t guarantee a larger move to the upside, just yet, the CTF Trailer breakout which has just been confirmed adds more odds to the bullish side of the market, at least for the short-term.

The CTF Trailer breakout suggests that the bulls have re-gained the control over the market, and as long as BTC keeps closing sessions above the Stop level at $20623, the upwards trend may develop.

Potential price objectives point towards 280000-30000 USD regions.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart has seen a minor break above the High Band, of the BPRO.

The volatility breakout is not yet fully confirmed, until a daily session closes through 22700 USD resistance.

Moreover, until the breakout is confirmed and additionally validated by the said volatility trigger, the chances increase for a mean-reverting move to the downside, provided that there is a breakout failure – rejection at 22700 USD.

The BPRO Momentum Bands imply that an expected volatility range for BTC is at 19700-22700 USD. Until an either side breakout comes through, Bitcoin prices may oscillate within the range.

Furthermore, relevant support levels rest at $21440, $18985 (19000 USD) and $17104 as given by the BPRO. At the same time, the BPRO Level Lines define resistance at $28588 ($28600).

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

LTF 1H:

The short-term, hourly chart displays a potential swing high and a top pattern followed by a reversal.

A mean-reverting move to the downside seems favored by the short-term traders, after the swing high bar has been formed at 22800 USD resistance.

The 22500 USD resistance has been overthrown by the bulls, which commits to the short-term breakout failure. This is a failed pattern example, and failed patterns typically perform better in the opposite direction than the regular breakouts.

While the short-term patterns come with short-term implications only, a larger failure may be confirmed if a daily closes below the 21664 USD support.

Overall, an upwards trend has followed through nicely, so far. However, the top breakout failure adds to the odds for the short-term downside development.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

The fear saga continues, as sentiment maintains 20 points at the index scale, out of 100.

Still, it is classified under the category of extreme fear.

For this reason, and the fact that underinformed herds are always wrong at the extremes due to emotional and cognitive biases, the contrarian investors may benefit from a longer-term mean reversion to the upside.

Furthermore, most of the cryptos bottom out at 70-90% drawdowns off the peaks. Having a glance at the 2022 performance chart for the top market capitalization coins, many of them have retraceed into such depths of the bear market, which favors the odds for, at least, a short, or medium-term bear market rally.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

The NUPL at -0.05 ratio value also supports the concept of market capitulation, based on the historical on-chain readings.

While the history doesn’t repeat, it often rhymes.

Historically, buying into extreme fear, as well as on-chain capitulation events have yielded positive and strong returns for the blood-buyers.

It may not come immediately, but the patience pays off for those who take action when the majority fears.

I’ve discussed even more in today’s premium video report, available in full only to the exclusive subscribers.

Hope it helps. God bless!

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HTF 1W:

The weekly chart has added yet another bar and close under the 200-week average.

Historically, long-term purchases near and under the 200-week mean have been more profitable than not.

The BPRO remains still on the bearish note, ever since the 2022 beginning. There is an attempt to build a base at the BWAP block zone at 20-21.7k USD.

The spinning top candle seems to be aligned with low volatility, when compared to the capitulation bar 2 weeks ago.

After escaping the sideways pattern that had formed for a 1.5 year period, the correlation coefficient increased sharply to 86% vs S&P 500. Now, it has locally declined to 0.78 ratio, and as such – remains strongly positive. This suggests a strong dependence of bitcoin movements on the large cap movements.

As the history learns, BTCUSD usually puts a final trough in the price when inside the 80-90% drawdown zone, measured from the peak. While this theoretically paints a raw potential bottom closer to the 10-15k USD area, the representativeness bias should not prevail – the past is never a guarantee of future performance. However, the history often rhymes.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart maintains that the main resistance at $23141 has not yet been broken.

Instead, after printing several orange-colored (bullish) bars in the chart, a local trend line of a steep upwards bounce off the 17.5k USD lows has been broken. This may suggest that the short-term outlook for the bounce has slowed down, and the local upwards trend is searching for a new, more sustainable angle of the trend line.

The CTF Trailer remains still on the bearish note. For this reason, the bears should be expected to be still in control over the medium-, to long-term picture. Should it change with a break above the $23200 level, the bulls will win back the upper vote.

Until that happens, the supports are more likely to be broken, while the resistances are more likely to be held.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart is making a retest at the main short-term support level of $20616.

That is the level defined by the BPRO and recognized as the most relevant, essential for the short-term bulls to maintain the upper hand in the market. If that level is broken with a daily close below, the chances are that the short-term bears continue to escalate the short-term fall.

A measured move following a breakdown to the local range pattern (20.6-21.8k USD) may take BTC to as low 19.2k USD.

However, a more relevant support rests at $17104 as given by the BPRO. At the same time, the BPRO Level Lines define resistances at following anchors:

32760
29702
28481
21440

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

LTF 1H:

The short-term chart shows a couple of hints, in favour of the short-term range-bound pattern development.

Firstly, there has been an overthrow on top. Bitcoin has printed a failed breakout above the previous swing high at $21708. This typically is a sign of temporary weakness, as BTC is unable to reclaim the higher levels as a new support. Typically, this would add validity and strength to the resistance at 21.7-21.9k USD.

Secondly, the BPRO divergence system implies a 73% divergence score on top, signaling the overbought trend sentiment, where the momentum has slowed down, increasing chances for distribution pattern to unfold.

Finally, the up-trend line pattern has been broken down and rejected subsequently. As you may know from the most recent paper, trend lines often work as dynamic barriers (support or resistance). Traders tend to adjust their stops and bids for their loss aversion and regret bias after getting hurt in the past. With order clustering, longer trend lines often break with more volatility, as the local trend gets exhausted.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

As far as the sentiment goes, the extreme fear in the market barely improves. It is yet another session at 12 points on the index scale, which belongs under the category of capitulation stage in the market. If one looks closely enough, they will most likely see a lot of similarity in the shape of the reversal patterns within this cycle, since 2018. This is the third attempt at the capitulation. While the resemblance is apparent, the representativeness bias should not prevail in sound reasoning. As traders, people tend to extrapolate on a small sample of data. Here – just because the past 2 reversal patterns were similar, it does not guarantee that the current pattern will unfold in exactly the same way. Nonetheless, the crowds are always wrong at the extremes. Hence, trading counter the panic selling should prove traders profitable over the time.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

Following the CryptoQuant’s definition breakdown: “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. Assuming that the latest coin movement is the result of a purchase, NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins represented as a ratio. It could be interpreted as the ratio of investors who are in profit. Values over ‘0’ indicate investors are in profit and an increasing trend in value means more investors are beginning to be in profit. This phase indicates the increasing reason to take profit which leads to an increase in sell pressure.”

Clearly, the current NUPL ratio at -0.07 is classified as the capitulation based on the ratio benchmarks. Historically speaking, buying into capitulation is more profitable than selling into it. There may still be some pain left in the market ahead. However, the bottoming pattern or period may happen to be an opportunity of a lifetime.

Hope it helps. God bless

P.S.

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HTF 1W:

The weekly chart printed a major break-through session for BTCUSD, taking it among the deepest historical corrections.

Finding support at the cyclical AVWAP ~ $17800, an intraweek bounce was recorded, following a major decrease, forcing many firms, and funds to go bankrupt, or insolvent. Also, well-known and largest crypto funds suffered from overwhelming losses, forcing liquidations. It remarks financial distress stage of the market cycle.

The main long-term support is also provided by the 200-week average at the 22500 USD area. While it is not set in stone that BTCUSD does not slip below those averages, historically bitcoin rarely stayed at those prices for long-term.

Historical records of bitcoin’s cycles typically show 80-90% drawdowns off the peaks. Now, when BTC is at -75% retracement depth, there might in theory be more flush ahead. This historical evidence gives empirical frequency and probability, which is relatively high and in favor of BTC reversal within the 80-90% drawdown range. However, one should not anticipate to catch the perfect bottom.

The main resistance seems to be within the 26500-28500 USD territory, based on the price action analysis – the polarity change principle.

The correlation coefficient has also increased up to 0.87 or 87%. It suggests strong dependence of bitcoin price movements on the price action of S&P 500.

Furthermore, the Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG – chart analysis shows long tail on the far left, oriented to the downside corner. This confirms relative underperformance by a lot against the benchmark – S&P 500 – both in terms of relative momentum, and relative strength. For this, sector rotation does not support portfolios being overweight crypto.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart shows BTCUSD is attempting to build a base in the upper $19000s.

With the downwards acceleration, the CTF Trailer has been downwards-adjusted. As such, the Stop level at $21341 is the main invalidation level for the bears, and a solid threshold to break above for the bulls, in order to re-gain the control over the market. Until that happens, the bears remain to have the upper hand and are in control.

The pre-breakdown support territory of 28000 USD should turn into a resistance now, also on the self-fulfilling prophecy basis. Traders tend to display “magical thinking” and heuristics (rule of thumbs), where the support and the resistance switch the roles interchangeably.

Until a decent follow through 23141 USD occurs, the bears may continue to panic sell into the lows, contributing to further downwards price movements.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart shows an attempt of a breakout above the main trend threshold at 21000 USD.

The CTF Trailer has converged downwards with the price, and bitcoin is knocking right on the resistance of the CTF Trailer Stop level. If broken to the upside, bitcoin may get a momentum kick to empower further upwards continuation toward the 25200 USD area. A failure to close above 21000 USD brings higher chances for a deeper retest into the 17000 USD area.

Apart from the support at $17104, the BPRO Level Lines define resistances are projected at following anchors:

32588
29758
25179

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

LTF 1H:

The short-term price action shows some local consequence in the upwards trajectory, for the first time in a while.

The upwards sloping price movement is recognized as the series of higher highs and higher lows. However, note that the momentum is not the most apparent in there. The vertical distance between the peaks and troughs is not large, which makes the price action rather condensed. This congestion suggests that the upwards trend gets exhausted relatively fast and may lose the steam sooner than later.

Otherwise, if the up-trend line maintains the slope, I would argue that the next resistance may be the very HTF Stop (12H CTF Trailer Stop) at $23141. If this HTF level is reclaimed, short-term price action may also promote to develop on that.

A trend line breakdown may add to short-term range pattern and switch the upwards trajectory to neutral sideways with more chop to follow.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

A visual comparison of the most recent capitulation setup resembles the other instances of this cycle: the bear market depression of 2018, as well as the covid crash in March 2020.

While it is not set in stone for BTCUSD to revert upwards immediately after the sentiment pulls the historical lows, the mean-reverters and contrarians may consider current prices attractive on the contrary opinion basis. It is, knowing that the underinformed crowds are always wrong at the market extremes, and reversals.

Now, at 9 points on the sentiment scale out of 100, BTC could be considered to be inside the “cheap territory”. It is NOT, however, a timing indicator. So, it should not be associated with a complete trading system (entries, exits, stops, profit targets, triggers).

Regardless, obvjectively speaking bitcoin seems to be providing historical opportunities around these days and one should note for the sentiment readings to create a deeper understanding about the market context.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

Quoting the CryptoQuant’s definition, “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. Assuming that the latest coin movement is the result of a purchase, NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins represented as a ratio. It could be interpreted as the ratio of investors who are in profit. Values over ‘0’ indicate investors are in profit and an increasing trend in value means more investors are beginning to be in profit. This phase indicates the increasing reason to take profit which leads to an increase in sell pressure.”

The NUPL ratio is currently at the territory defined by the -0.19 to -0.1 boundaries. It is an unprecedented depth for this metric, which typically aligns with attractive return-to-risk ratios for the long-term investors, scaling into larger positions. More often than not, those buyers are the bottom-buyers in the hindsight.

Based on the records above, I choose to personally employ a partial long-term purchase – addition to my long-term stack in my already well-diversified portfolio of different assets.

More in-depth explanation I’ve added in premium video reports.

Hope it helps. God bless

P.S. Right or wrong, history often rhymes: https://twitter.com/crypto_birb/status/1538889025569931265?s=20

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart continues to print new bars in the local rejection theme, off the 21900 USD highs.

As explained before, the overthrow at the peak marks the resistance area from 21700 USD to 21900 USD. This should be considered a supply zone, coming from the resistances clustering. Price action wise, BTCUSD is also nearing local support area, at the swing lows of 19700 USD. A clean break below may suggest further downside continuation, which may be still the dominant assumption.

The CTF Trailer remains on the bearish side, meaning that the bears hold the upper hand in the market. The critical threshold rests at $23061. As long as this level is not reclaimed by the bulls, the prevailing theme is oriented to the downside.

The first significant sign of strength could come with BTCUSD breaking above the resistance cluster at 22.4-23k USD. A proper reclaim over the 200-week average should add confluence to the upwards reversal pattern breakout, potentially aiming for higher objectives.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart has recorded BTC to flip on the bearish mode per the BPRO after breaking below 20600 USD.

The CTF Trailer has switched the polarity to the bearish side, and now the bears hold the upper hand in the market, for the short-term – until the $20878 level is reclaimed back to the upside. This increases the chances that the near-term bears may take BTC prices in the lower area of the pattern range (17.5k-21.9k USD).

The price action based support is at the prior swing lows at 19700 USD. In case this level is broken, the lower price objectives unfold.

However, a more relevant support rests at $17104 as given by the BPRO. At the same time, the BPRO Level Lines define resistances at following anchors:

32760
29702
28481
21440

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

LTF 1H:

The short-term price action is approaching the swing low support, at the low end of the range pattern.

Coming off 21900 USD, BTC has now retested the low area at 19800-20000 USD.

The overthrown peak boosts the chances for a potential support failure. It is, because failed patterns tend to perform better than the regular patterns, in the opposite direction than the one anticipated on the breakout direction itself. For that, a support break at 19700 USD might accelerate the downwards selling pressure into the 18500 USD area.

The range pattern holds a 2000 USD base size. This means, that the downwards breakout could also imply a price objective based on the measured rule at 17700 USD. The proximity of the swing lows at 17500 USD may be of significance at that region – meaning that there is a chance BTC gets a similar overthrow at the bottom to revert back right after. While it is not certain or set in stone, one may need to account for such a possibility.

Overall, it is clear that after breaking down the upwards trend line, BTC keeps searching for a new, more sustainable trend line – slope of the trend. A crucial confirmation, for the current price action, could be brought with a reclaim over the 20700-21000 USD resistance – the mid range area.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

Little update to the sentiment side of the market, as the index hand points at 13 units out of 100. The ratio remains in the capitulation stage, as the extreme fear conditions barely improve on the daily basis. Historically, buying into extreme fear or panic selling of the capitulation stage have brought more returns than for the sellers. The hopelessness in the market is dominant and apparent. While it may take some time (this is NOT a timing indicator!), the contrarians are more likely to be correct at anticipating a mean-reverting move to the upside in the long-term.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

The NUPL ratio has decreased slightly to -0.10. The ratio belongs under the “capitulation” category, and should be considered such. While it does not make any promise that the prices may not go any lower, it rather hints on the potential profitability of BTC purchases in this zone. If history is of any lesson, then the revulsion themes provide the highest potential return with relatively low risk (low price distance to the lows).

IMPORTANT: While making any purchases on any of the indicators above, it is essential to understand that for a limited time, one’s entry may get underwater. As any other momentum based indicator, it anticipates trend reversal based on overextension of the prior trend. Because trends have the tendency to persist, one consents to enter the position counter the market trend. Without risk management, no investing tactic may need to be profitable.

Hope it helps.
God bless

P.S. Access more & premium details in my exclusive video report. Claim 10% off membership linked below.

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HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has taken out the yesterday’s lows at 20k USD support and now bitcoin is leaking again.

The price action analysis shows downwards trajectory, which does not seem to be meeting much of support down the road. Instead, it rather points towards short-term continuation patterns, while BTC is tagging -73% retracement levels off the highs.

Historically, bitcoin bottoms out during bear markets within the 80-90% drawdown, measured from the peak. For now, BTC has reached the very same correction depth as the 2019-2020 COVID crash.

There are no confirmed signs of bottom reversal just yet. However, those may appear at any time, in the proximity of the cycle AVWAP support at $17789.

The CTF Trailer adjusts lower to the Stop $23421, which needs to be definitely reclaimed with a daily or weekly close above, in order to bring back any bullish rationale. Until that happens, the panic selling stage in the market may prevail and continue lower. It is the money that moves the market, as the investors sell off.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart shows the continued downwards tendency of bitcoin prices, for now.

The short-term trend breakout threshold (CTF Trailer) proves the Stop invalidation level for the bulls to break at $21599. Until this level breaks, the bears are in control and have the upper vote in the market.

The BPRO Bands come up with a volatility range defined at the 19-23k USD territory. This implies that BTCUSD may be expected to oscillate within those boundaries, provided that there is no close of a session below the 19k USD support. If the breakout to the downside occurs, BTCUSD may see range invalidation and a volatility breakout, followed by a larger sell-off.

The BPRO Level Lines define resistances are projected at following anchors:

32441
29196
25179

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

LTF 1H:

The short-term price action analysis does not seem to reveal any intraday reversal pattern to have formed, just yet.

The volatility has increased sharply, and almost tripled at the weekend’s 26k USD support breakdown. The greater the volatility (the bottom indicator – ATR smoothed), the greater the chances for the reversal. This stems from the fact that the biggest liquidations, fundamental market structure changes by the orders, occur at the very reversals. Hence, it also aligns with abnormal volume reactions.

An aggregation of volume spikes may be considered a leading indicator, as the major volume turnarounds aling with the market direction shifts, more often than not.

Further downwards continuation may be expected, until the higher time frame levels, described earlier in the text, are reclaimed and respected again.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

The consistency requires a check on the sentiment.

In fact, some data vendors would display that never before in the recorded history of bitcoin, was it at this bad sentiment readings.

Now, at the 6 points on the fear/greed index scale, out of 100, extreme fear was taken yet to greater magnitude.

While it may not be read as a timing indicator like RSI or Stoch, which I keep higlighting a lot, it may still serve an important and valuable insight for the contrarian traders. They would typically buy when underinformed crowds are selling, and sell when the underinformed crowds are buying.

With bitcoin trading at 19000 USD now, typically buying into extreme fear returned positive ROI, when compared with selling into depths of panic selling. While it should not be considered a trading strategy or a system (one would still need a properly adjusted trading system, position sizing, risk management, and more tools), it may serve as a form of a magnifying glass to let the reader focus for when to start looking for opening positions.

Finally, technical analysis should be used to size the position and limit the risks.

That’s all for today. Stay strong and avoid leveraged trading through the capitulation process. Catching falling knives rarely ever works for the traders.

God bless all.

P.S. If missed my webinar updates for BTC scenarios, watch below

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has printed a minor breakout failure at the daily close. Short-term implications to follow.

The daily bar attempted an upwards breakout through the main resistance level at 21132 USD. Despite breaking through the boundary, the bar closed below the resistance, committing to the breakout failure.

As for the fakeout, the shor-term implications may favor a mean-reverting move to the downside, as the range high area has failed to follow through. The consolidation pattern prefers short-term swings between the range lows, and the range highs.

While the support cluster is defined by two support lines at $18595, and $17592, the BWAP block provides a short-term bounce cushion at 20.2-20.7k USD.
Until the CTF Trailer Stop $21132 is reclaimed on the daily or weekly term, BTC has more odds to continue flat or move downwards, as the bears are in control.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart, clearly, is trapping BTC prices in a range-bound movement, as it struggles to find its trend.
Yet another time, the CTF Trailer has flipped its polarity, now to the upside. The bull note has flashed, as the bulls re-gained the control over the short-term price action. However, the reliability is arguable, for as long as BTC moves inside the sideways pattern. Until BTC breaks out, the price will lack defined direction, persistence in any direction.

The CTF Trailer Stop is at $19575, for the short-term. Until the level breaks down, the bulls are in charge in the short-term.

LTF 1H:

The short-term price action of Bitcoin has formed a supply cluster in the zone at 20880-21164 USD.

After rejecting the highs of 21200 USD following subsequent breakout failures and overthrows, BTC may be due for a short-term mean reversion, to the downside.

While it is not set in stone, weekends tend to generate lower volume, and decreased volatility as traditional exchanges do not trade through the weekends. This may favor, a bit more, the downwards price action development, as decreased demand from buyers may not hold the slow distribution process on top of the move.

As soon as the resistance cluster is broken through, and BTC shows strength where it’s showed weakness earlier, the odds will improve for the bulls to build a medium-term upwards trend.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

Now, at 21 points on the scale, the sentiment maintains its bearish consensus.

The extreme fear sequence continues, as the traders give up on their hopes for the things to be great again.

Bitcoin is now expected to move downwards, and probably not recover, according to a broader anticipation from underinformed herds.

Typically, this had generated contrarian opportunities in the past, which were proved profitable.

Will it be the same now? There’s not guarantee to it.

History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.

Hope it helps. God bless.

P.S. If missed, catch up with my latest webinar study below.

Hi, I’m Square, a VTuber clippers from Indonesia 🙂 Thank you for Watching my clips guys 🙂
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Stream Source : RESIDENT EVIL 3 PART 2【NIJISANJI EN | Enna Alouette】https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-1Xa6Mn7QY Timestamp : 1:04:00
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