Pache.co Information Technologies

In a quick cascade of sells throughout the night, when the US markets are closed, BTC joined the selling wagon along with stocks, which have heavily plummeted after the stock market open. An overall macro-finance environment is rather confirmatory more for the neutral-bearish solution, opposed to bullish. This does not provide healthy background context for crypto.

After tagging 22500 USD, bitcoin has tested the long-term ultimate support region, defined by the 200-week average ($22381). Historically, BTCUSD had not stayed for below this key threshold and typically brought sharp reversals soon after the retest. While the past is never a guarantee of future performance, it is essential to account for this 200-week benchmark to decide bitcoin’s “cheap” price given by the market itself.

Now, that bitcoin has reached -67% retracement off the peak, the correlation coefficient has rallied back up sharply from 0.47 to 0.71 in recent days. The correlation is vital to understand where bitcoin is relative to traditional finance.

Also, Relative Rotation Graphs are showing relative underperformance of BTC (and crypto) against large cap stocks of the S&P 500 index. This underperformance hints on crypto-underweight portfolio as the preferred version. It’s promoted a lighter rather than heavier weight version of diversified portfolios for cryptos. The yields and dollar prevails, for now.

HTF 1D:

The daily chart has violated the 2021-2022 support area , taking an elevator down in a single strike, accelerated by fundamental fears about the solvency of main crypto corporate giants, like Celsius Network.

The polarity change principle suggests that the broken support becomes a resistance, so 28500-29000 USD region should be considered such.
This almost -15% daily drawdown is one of the most violent moves seen across the crypto markets recently, beating the LUNA crash. Increased volatility typically brings more fundamental changes in the markets as the biggest amount of volatility, volume (transactions) are being processed. This means that the biggest amount of impatient sells to patient buys takes place, amid the panic selling.

The historical benchmark price for long-term bitcoin outlook has been the 200-week moving average, which is now trading in proximity, at $22379. While it is not set in stone that bitcoin may not break or penetrate this support, historically the response has rather been upwards-oriented.

However, again, trading crypto is more about considering crypto trades as part of diversified portfolio rather than being all in crypto and trading one’s entire futures account on 100x leverage. One always needs to account that it’s purely not probable to pinpoint perfect top or a bottom – it’s a lottery and you never know it’s a top or a bottom, other than observing it with the benefit of the hindsight. Still, it’s easy to get fooled by one’s hindsight bias where everything is obvious, accurate, easy in the hindsight. The reality is, that it is never certain while at the very time of making the decisions.

Besides, the daily AVWAP rests as volume-backed resistance at $41202, which shows an averaged and volume-based fair price of bitcoin, accounting for the history since November 2021 peak.

Bitcoin prices are trading well below that level.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has continued the sell-off after a failed breakout trigger from the BPRO.

After receiving the most recent “Bear” note warning from the BPRO trend-following system I am using, I cut high-six-figure bitcoin spot buy position for 55000 USD loss, which eventually has saved my position another 25% drawdown. This is the very nature of trend-following trading. You consent to getting stopped more often in sideways, and avoid large losses or cash in large profits. That’s the trade-off and at times a run of 5-7 losses in a row out of 10 may occur. Yet, this is still normal as the profits or un-lost capital coming from a trend compensates for all the small losses on the way.

Why am I telling you that? Well, I see what is happening in the market right now and I imagine the panic and uncertainty are peaking amongst many people, inside and mostly – outside our community. There will be many attempts to leverage in and catch the falling knives, attempting to pinpoint the bottom reversal. I am here to warn you. Most likely, before the time you prove your entry right, you would risk liquidating yourself and leading straight into ruin as you are moving counter the trend. In the panic times, it is the money that moves the market. It’s like swimming under the river stream. You can do it for a minute, or two, but you will soon exhaust your moves and leave out of the options. This works the same in the trading world. Some people do not have this comfort to read quality market insights from somebody who had been there and done all that. By providing you with such reports, I am trying to save as many people as possible from the risk of ruin. If one has a small trading account and would keep longing every dip on the bitcoin futures, you would soon find yourself in complete ruin, which basically leaves zeros on your balance.

The percentages law, which stands for (1/(1-%loss)) – 1, gives you the formula for the amount of capital ROI required to overcome a % loss. Imagine a 50% loss: it would take you 100% ROI to make it back. In case of 75% loss on your account, you will need 300% gain to recover the loss. So, to break even on 99% loss, you would need 9900%. Each loss gets you closer to ruin.

All that to say so that you do not attempt to catch a perfect bottom. Until you reach it, you would likely have been already broke.

I am personally waiting for a break above the CTF Trailer Stop $26028, before I make any new short-term BTCUSD purchase.

It is worth observing the BPRO CTF Trailer to get more likelihood of correct trades.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart displays a violent outbreak on the volatility of medium-term bitcoin moves.

The BPRO Momentum Bands have been breached to the downside resulting in an heavily oversold (over-extended) strike, way below the Low Band indicator. This marks downwards and abnormal volatility, which is not typical or sustainable. This means it is usually more likely to be a candidate for a peak or a bottom, as the volatility always peaks at the reversals.

The volatility breakdown is a clear mark for the market direction and sets the new anchor at 22500 USD level as a support. While it is not a guarantee to be held ever, one can compare it with the 26200 USD Baseline average to recognize the local range thresholds, most likely.

However, it is not suggested to trade counter the trend during the capitulation spikes. The market does not seem yet to be bottomed out. Especially, that there is a FOMC meeting in June 14-15th this week, which is quite a fundamental event for the week which will confirm the next steps for this rate hiking cycle. This also brings chances for being a candidate for a major twist in the markets, if the readings are more bullish than expected.

Lots of volatility ahead in the short-term. Volatility is risk. If one is more risk averse, I would suggest holding back from trading through the reversal days. That’s where the maximum risk is.

LTF 1H:

The short-term chart reveals a few resistances projected by the BPRO Level Lines indicators, among other essential tips from the market itself.

Locally, a downwards acceleration promotes rather short-term bearishness than bullishness. The BWAP resistance is adjusted to 23.7-24k USD area. If it is broken to the upside, the chances for a stronger move upwards increase. Similarly, in case BTCUSD resists to break through the 24000 USD resistance, the chances for downwards continuation are getting bigger, as the panic selling emerges.

The main supports are displayed by the long-term charts at the 200-week average, as well as the 2017 ATH peak at 20000 USD. If I were to shoot my blind guess, I would say the bottom is there. However, please understand that this is a guess. Nobody knows what the future holds. Nobody knows the next moves from the FED, Putin’s Russia war in Ukraine, or politicians. Those rule the markets, and not me. All we get is a more mathematized guess, which is nowhere near certain. Still, it may happen to be valuable insight in the near-term, so it’s good to account for it.

Besides, the Level Lines define resistances at following anchors:

32267
29870
28269

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

As the chart suggests, the fear for yesterday reached 11 points on the scale, which again is on the low-end of historical readings.

While it does not aim to time the perfect top and bottom, which by the way is impossible, it can still provide a valuable context whether selling or buying may soon turn out to be more profitable.

At times, the fear environment may stay in the panic mode for days, weeks, or months. However, this does not mean bitcoin has ever lost its fundamental value. The chart implies bitcoin is currently underpriced, accounting for the historical readings.

It may be better to buy in cheaper than at more expensive outlooks. I will provide my personal trading update over my long-term holdings in my private trading channel, available for the exclusive members only. If also want to access premium video report, you can get it with 10% off with the link below.

God bless

Posted 21 Jun 2022 14:30 by Pacheco News | Birbs | No comments

Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 15 2022) – The Birb Nest

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has recently showed substantial deterioration in terms of bitcoin percentage performance 2022 YTD.

Now, amid global financial markets crashing, bitcoin has tagged the 2017 ATH levels of 20000 USD. The polarity change principle suggests that the price action of bitcoin should find major support in this area. However, an overall panic-selling and money moving the market to the downside does not guarantee the support will remain unbroken. The aggressive capitulation spikes, price slips below are possible – especially, if combined with today’s resolutions during the FOMC meeting and fundamental, rate hiking decision.

Price wise, bitcoin has ultimate supports in the 200-week average area around 22000 USD, as well as the almost 4-year AVWAP support defined at 17781. This region, overall, makes a good candidate for the bottoming process. Still, it would fundamentally depend on today’s FED rate hike announcements.

The CTF Trailer is set at 25503, and I personally am not planning to deploy my short-term capital before that threshold is reclaimed by BTCUSD.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart displays a violent outbreak on the volatility of medium-term bitcoin moves. However, this outbreak seems to be already included within the adjusted volatility range, defined by the BPRO Momentum Bands.

The BPRO Bands confirm that BTCUSD is in the low-end support territory, accounting for its historical volatility. A clear violation and breakdown below the 20000 USD may lead to further downside chop and sharp fluctuations, rapid convulsions. The upper extreme of the volatility range is averaged around 26000 USD, for the near-term.

In times like this, on the day of known fundamental and macroeconomic change expectations, volatility and risk may often be out of control and an unexpected short-term price shock may emerge – in either direction. More often than not, holding through the price shock pays off better than a risky attempt to trade through this 50/50 guessing game for which direction the price shock takes to unfold.

Catching the bottom is literal lottery. The odds are heavily against you and until you manage to catch all the falling knives, you risk going bankrupt before that happens. I would recommend you avoid it if your risk preference does not allow such.

LTF 1H:

The hourly chart shows a bunch of relevant support/resistance areas, which could serve as anchors for traders to adjust their trades around them.

Not only the 12h CTF Trailer remains relevant and respected on the hourly time frame, but it also gives a valid resistance projection at 26000 USD.

With today’s FOMC meeting, the main price action and new market direction decisions are going to take place on the hourly chart. A major sharp reversal coming from a positive shock reaction in the market (if reality turns out more bullish than expectations) may have longer-term implications. It should all start with the hourly chart, however. It may be beneficial to work to spot early reversal patterns and symptoms supporting a larger reversal idea.

While the support is given at 20558, the Level Lines define resistances are projected at following anchors:

32267
29870
28269

These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

The capitulation event seems to have arrived. Amid escalated fears and panic selling, the sentiment has gone down to 7 points on the fear/greed index scale.

This metric should by no means be confused with timing indicator. It does not provide momentum insights like RSI or Stoch, or MACD would do. Instead, it provides valuable information on what the contrarian traders may consider appealing for their contrarian investments.

The panic selling is the very opposite of irrational exuberance and frenzy of reckless buying during euphoria stages of the market. Those who take the opportunities when every other retail investor thinks of capitulating and selling off at any cost to protect the remainings of their initial investments, they would also be the ones to benefit positively from the reversal soon after.

While it may seem like the end, it most likely is not. Bitcoin had been through many of the “death sentences” in the past – as per the chart visuals. While guessing the bottom remains … well,… guessing – buying into the ultimate panic selling may soon turn out to be more profitable stategy for many, upon their private risk preferences and utilities.

More insights and warnings have already been shared across the premium room chats, my private trading channel, exclusive calls hubs. If want to get discounted access ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, grab your discount link below.

Hope it helps.

Posted 21 Jun 2022 12:30 by Pacheco News | Birbs | No comments

【KeyWe】sussy birb【Vestia Zeta x Pavolia Reine】

– ̗̀ ❤︎‬‪ ̖́- Donasi Lokal: Traktir bakzo untuk Zeta?
Link: https://sociabuzz.com/vestiazeta/tribe

Collab with : @Pavolia Reine Ch. hololive-ID
Reine POV: https://youtu.be/-r9gZ6bOGW0

#VestiaZeta #ZecretLive #HoloID

ﾟ+*:ꔫ:*﹤
This game is being streamed and monetized after confirming with a representative from Fireshine Games

– ̗̀ ❤︎‬‪ ̖́- Social Media / SNS
【Twitter】
Posts by vestiazeta
【Instagram】
https://www.instagram.com/vestiazeta
【Tiktok】

@vestiazeta

【Facebook】
https://www.facebook.com/VestiaZeta

– ̗̀ ❤︎‬‪ ̖́- Rules / Peraturan
【ID】Aturan yang perlu diingat saat streaming sedang berlangsung:
• Harap bersikap baik dengan sesama penonton dan berkomentarlah dengan bahasa yang sopan.
• Dimohon untuk tidak melakukan diskusi diluar topik pada kolom komentar.
• Dimohon tidak melakukan spam dalam bentuk apa pun.
• Dimohon untuk tidak mengumpat, mencela, atau berbicara dengan bahasa yang kasar.
• Dimohon untuk jaga sikap saat komentar dan mohon jangan komentar hal-hal sensitif yang berbau SARA, politik, NSFW, dll.
• Dimohon untuk tidak berdiskusi satu sama lain di waiting room.
• Dimohon untuk tidak memberi komentar tentang Vtuber lain di waiting room/saat livestream apabila tidak dimulai lebih dulu oleh Vtuber yang sedang streaming karena bersifat kurang sopan.

【EN】Notice during the stream:
• Please be nice with each other and comment using polite words.
• Please keep the chat on-topic in relation to the stream.
• Please do not spam.
• Please do not swear, bash, or talk with any kind of foul language.
• Please refrain from commenting about sensitive topics such as race, politics, NSFW, etc.
• Please do not do any discussion in the waiting room.
• Please do not mention or give any comment about other Vtuber during the livestream if the topic isn’t started first by the current streamer first because it would be considered impolite.

【JP】皆に気を付けてほしいこと：
・視聴者同士で仲良く、丁寧な言葉でコメントをお願いします
・無関係の話題を話さないでください
・絵文字のスパムをしないようお願いします
・不適切な言葉を使わないでほしいです
・待機中の話を遠慮してほしいです
・話題に出ていない他の配信者について、話さないでください

– ̗̀ ❤︎‬‪ ̖́- Hashtag
• General: #VestiaZeta
• Live: #ZecretLive
• Fanart: #Zetacrylic
• Asset: #Zetassets
• Meme: #DEEZeta

【AruTera Sensei】https://twitter.com/teraaru6262
【Tou Ilie Sensei】 https://twitter.com/tou_ilie

– ̗̀ ❤︎‬‪ ̖́- Hololive Indonesia Gen 3
【Kaela Kovalskia】
• Channel: https://t.co/vHxzhWQMny
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/kaelakovalskia
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kaelakovalskia
• Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kaelakovalskia
【Kobo Kanaeru 】
• Channel: https://t.co/hAZaN3S6Op
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/kobokanaeru
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kobokanaeru/
• Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kobokanaeru

– ̗̀ ❤︎‬‪ ̖́- Credits
Thumbnail art: https://twitter.com/Yagudo_bunya
Overlay: https://www.twitter.com/flbtmrnn
Logo: https://www.twitter.com/Mi_grph3k
Stinger: https://www.twitter.com/rayquazamv
BGM: https://www.audiostock.jp/
Irasutoya: https://www.irasutoya.com/

– ̗̀ ❤︎‬‪ ̖́- Hololive
【Official cover website】
http://cover-corp.com/
【Official YouTube Channel hololive Indonesia】
https://www.youtube.com/c/hololiveIndonesia
【Official Twitter hololive Indonesia】
Posts by hololive_Id
【Official Facebook hololive Indonesia】
https://www.facebook.com/Hololive-Indonesia-108806367277672/

Posted 20 Jun 2022 22:20 by Pacheco Staff | Birbs | No comments

Gamer Birb | Celtic Medieval Fantasy Music Mix for Birds | Parrot TV for Your Bird Room🍀

Welcome to the third video addition of our Gamer Birb Series—Celtic Medieval Fantasy Music for Birds. A feel-good mix of Celtic pieces that take you and your bird on an audibly medieval-inspired journey to another time. Voted for by those of you that follow our YouTube Community Feed.
We hope you enjoy🍀

Parrot Sounds Performed by the Parrot Town birdies 🙂
Parrot Town: Peachy & Ellie🌈 (Cockatoos), Charlie (African Grey), Benny (IRN), Frankie & Augie (Cockatiel)
Music Composed by Alexander Nakarada

👾 Join Our Bird Community Discord👉 https://discord.gg/rhHz5bw5j2

🌻Tips go to helping us fund our multiple servers each month.
If you’d like to help support Parrot Town TV you can use our PayPal link here: https://paypal.me/ParrotTown
or visit our stream elements tipping page here https://streamelements.com/parrottown/tip
Thank you❤️ your support helps so much!

PTown Stuff🦜
‣ PTown Amazon Shop: https://amzn.to/3vlVDmN
‣ Check out our growing collection of cute birb stuff @ https://BirbStuff.com
‣ Our Birbie Blog: https://parrot.town/

Our Favorite Bird Foods😋
‣ Our Favorite Parrot Chop: https://parrot.town/easy-parrot-chop/
‣ Favorite Foods in PTown: https://amzn.to/3vJatmO

Our Favorite Bird Toys🤗
‣ DIY Bird Toy Supplies: https://amzn.to/3vRS733
‣ Our Favorite All Natural Bird Toys: https://amzn.to/3xmkUil
‣ All Natural Grapevine Wreaths you see the birds playing w/in the streams: https://amzn.to/33p5V8Y
‣ Our Favorite Bird Toy Shop: https://parrotplayhouse.com/

👀You can watch the birds behind-the-scenes on our Parrot Town Shorts YouTube channel: youtube.com/channel/UCGO7YMGSDPJ0kb7_NchkB5A

✨FREE Bird Rescue Database: https://myrightbird.com/locator
✨Find an Avian Vet Near You: https://www.aav.org/search/custom.asp?id=1803

-About Parrot Town
A Virtual Bird Room for Your Parrot ❤️
Parrot Town TV is all about giving your bird a virtual flock to hang out with daily, while helping you create a peaceful atmosphere for them through endless parrot enriching sights and sounds.
𝑾𝒆 ❤️ 𝑯𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒚 𝑩𝒊𝒓𝒅𝒊𝒆𝒔!

Birds & Parrots are social creatures. There’s nothing that birds enjoy more than hanging out with other birds doing bird things. Our Parrot TV is made to help you set the stage for your own feathered companion’s daily living environment by creating a happy, content, calm, & balanced atmosphere🌺

💡If you’re New to caring for birds, please be aware that Parrot Town TV is not a cure-all for parrot problems. Be sure that all of their physical, mental, & emotional needs are met each day as well. Parrots are complex, wild beings that require a great deal of research to properly balance all aspects of their many daily needs.

👪Bird Friends
🕊️Parrot Playhouse: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCeZFtfsvMso6Tn1IrCXToDQ
🕊️ P.E.A.C. San Diego: https://www.facebook.com/peac.org/
🕊️Ronies for the Love of Birds: https://www.facebook.com/RoniesUtah/
🕊️ Birdhism: https://birdhism.com/
🕊️Onni Cockatoo: https://www.youtube.com/user/wolfysluv
🕊️Fluff & Feathers Bird Training: https://www.fluffnfeathers.com/
🕊️Birb Memes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCeNyKC-_M2EKYqxa22_KY6w
🕊️Alex the Honking Bird: https://www.youtube.com/user/doorbell26
🕊️Forever Feathers Keepsakes & Memorials: https://www.facebook.com/FFKandM/
🕊️Rocky’s Rescued Feathered Friends Support Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/399163234067470/

*As an Amazon Associate Parrot Town earns from qualifying purchases.

#ParrotTownTV #BirdRoom #BirdTV

Posted 20 Jun 2022 18:20 by Pacheco Staff | Birbs | 1 comment

Sleepy Birb Lounge [Vol. 2] | Calm Piano Music for Birds | Parrot Music TV for Your Bird Room🎶

Our Sleepy Birb Lounge for your bird room is a peaceful blend of piano music and gentle evening parrot sounds to help calm your bird. Perfect for when your bird is nervous, scared, or simply needs to begin to unwind at the end of the day.
All parrot sounds are performed by the Parrot Town birds.

💸Tips go to helping us fund our multiple servers each month.
If you’d like to help support Parrot Town TV you can use our PayPal link here: https://paypal.me/ParrotTown
or visit our stream elements tipping page here https://streamelements.com/parrottown/tip
Thank you❤️ your support helps so much!

PTown Stuff🦜
‣ PTown Amazon Shop: https://amzn.to/3vlVDmN
‣ Check out our growing collection of cute birb stuff @ https://BirbStuff.com
‣ Our Birbie Blog: https://parrot.town/

Our Favorite Bird Foods😋
‣ Our Favorite Parrot Chop: https://parrot.town/easy-parrot-chop/
‣ Favorite Foods in PTown: https://amzn.to/3vJatmO

👀You can watch the birds behind-the-scenes on our Parrot Town Shorts YouTube channel: youtube.com/channel/UCGO7YMGSDPJ0kb7_NchkB5A

👾 Connect with Other Bird People in Parrot Town Discord Birb Community: https://discord.gg/rhHz5bw5j2

✨FREE Bird Rescue Database: https://myrightbird.com/locator
✨Find an Avian Vet Near You: https://www.aav.org/search/custom.asp?id=1803

*Our YouTube Livestreams are Helping to Protect, Rescue, & Rehabilitate Poached Wild Cockatoos from viewers like you. Learn More👉 https://parrot.town/saving-and-protecting-endangered-wild-cockatoos-of-indonesia/

🦜Parrot Town: Peachy (Cockatoo), Charlie (African Grey), Benny (IRN), Frankie & Augie (Cockatiel)

*As an Amazon Associate Parrot Town earns from qualifying purchases.

#ParrotTownTV #BirdRoom #BirdTV